Potential Tropical Depression May Develop in Caribbean, Subtropical Storm Patty Weakening

A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical depression, potentially named Rafael, within days. The NHC is monitoring this system as it may contribute to increased flooding risks for Caribbean islands. Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the North Atlantic but is expected to weaken rapidly. Overall, the potential for a significant impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast appears low at this time.

A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is increasingly likely to develop into a tropical depression, as indicated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Currently characterized by disorganized storms, the system is anticipated to gain strength as it progresses over the central and western Caribbean. Forecast models suggest that this system may evolve into a tropical storm, tentatively named Rafael, by midweek. As moisture from the disturbance moves northward, it may heighten the flooding risk for Caribbean islands, particularly those west of Puerto Rico, starting Monday. In the Gulf of Mexico, potential scenarios vary; a weaker system could drift west toward Mexico, while a stronger system might advance north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Nevertheless, dry air and unfavorable winds in the Gulf may hinder significant strengthening. Concurrently, the NHC is observing a low-pressure area in the northeastern Caribbean Sea with limited potential for development. Lastly, Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the North Atlantic but is expected to weaken soon. No significant impacts on the U.S. are anticipated at this time.

The article discusses the current state of the Atlantic hurricane season, specifically focusing on disturbances in the Caribbean Sea that may develop into tropical systems. As the season draws to a close on November 30, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring both a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean, which could soon become a tropical depression or storm, and an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean with minimal development potential. The forecast also highlights the emergence of Subtropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic, which is projected to weaken shortly.

In summary, the potential for a tropical depression developing from a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean is increasing, with forecasts suggesting it could become Tropical Storm Rafael. While this system may pose flooding risks to Caribbean islands, its trajectory and strength remain uncertain, particularly as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the northeastern Caribbean is experiencing an area of low pressure, but its chances of development are slim. Ultimately, Subtropical Storm Patty is expected to diminish in strength without presenting significant threats to land.

Original Source: www.fox13news.com