Hurricane Season Remains Active: Potential Developments in November

November heralds the ongoing activity of the Atlantic hurricane season, with three areas of concern expected to develop over the coming days. A potential tropical system in the Caribbean could evolve into a storm named Patty, while protective winds may mitigate impacts in the Gulf Coast. Historical data indicates above-average storm activity this season, as the region remains a hotspot for potential tropical development.

As the month of November unfolds, the Atlantic hurricane season is poised to reawaken, revealing lingering threats even after Halloween has passed. Three primary areas of concern have emerged within the Atlantic basin, as meteorological experts closely monitor conditions that could lead to the development of new tropical systems. Among these, one region situated in the western Caribbean exhibits a significant likelihood of evolving into a tropical depression by late this weekend or early next week, as per updates from the National Hurricane Center. If this system does materialize, it is anticipated to strengthen into a tropical storm, with its eventual trajectory having critical implications for potential impacts across various regions. The subsequent tropical storm, should it form, would be named Patty, with future storms bearing the names Rafael and Sara. While the precise path of this prospective storm remains uncertain, possibilities suggest it may drift toward the Gulf of Mexico, bringing with it heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting the western Caribbean, parts of Central America, and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico in the coming week. Fortunately, the United States Gulf Coast may benefit from protective atmospheric conditions next week after experiencing a series of catastrophic hurricanes this season. Upper-level winds that disrupt tropical systems are expected to establish over the Gulf, which may prevent any potential storms from gaining strength as they approach. In addition to this significant development, two other areas of concern are noted, though they exhibit low probabilities for tropical development over the upcoming week. Stormy conditions that resulted in record rainfall in Puerto Rico on Thursday have continued to pummel portions of the northeastern Caribbean on Friday, posing risks of additional flooding for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola as the disturbance progresses westward. Furthermore, another area located in the open Atlantic presents little threat to land regardless of its development potential. As November typically marks a decline in hurricane activity, this season has proven to be anomalous, characterized by an above-average presence of named storms, hurricanes, and notably intense major hurricanes. Five hurricanes have impacted the United States this year, despite a notable hiatus during what is customarily the peak of the season. “It is no surprise this November looks likely to continue the trend.” Historically, November does witness the formation of storms, albeit at a lower frequency compared to earlier months, and storms making landfall in the US during this time are particularly rare. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), at least 125 tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic in November since the late 1800s, with 98 percent of named storms making landfall in the US prior to this month. Typically, storms that develop in November do so within the Caribbean or central Atlantic areas where warm water conditions persist, and concomitant storm-disrupting winds remain weaker. The Gulf of Mexico generally presents reduced risks for tropical cyclone development in late fall due to increasing disruptive winds. However, certain circumstances, such as the presence of exceptionally warm water, could sustain tropical activity in this region this November. Looking forward, the Climate Prediction Center indicates that the Caribbean may continue to serve as a hotspot for tropical activity as the month progresses. Although hurricane season officially concludes on November 30th, it is important to recognize that tropical systems are not strictly confined by this calendar date, with historical data revealing that approximately two dozen storms have occurred in December since the late 1800s.

The article discusses the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season during November, an unusual period marked by an above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Despite the traditional expectation for reduced activity, the season continues to present potential threats as meteorological conditions remain conducive for further development of tropical systems. Key insights from the National Hurricane Center highlight specific areas worth monitoring, emphasizing the importance of tracking potential storms and their implications for land impacts.

In conclusion, while the Atlantic hurricane season typically slows down in November, this year defies expectations with ongoing activity and the potential development of additional storms. The western Caribbean is especially critical, with the likelihood of a new tropical depression forming. Although protective atmospheric conditions may safeguard parts of the Gulf Coast, monitoring weather developments remains essential. This November exemplifies that hurricane season extends beyond traditional timelines, warranting continued vigilance even as December approaches.

Original Source: www.cnn.com