Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: The Emergence of an Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Axis

The summit of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia marks a significant geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa, largely aimed at containing Ethiopia. The leaders discussed enhancing cooperation amid security challenges, while underlying tensions over Ethiopia’s actions, particularly regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, remained evident. Somalia’s military partnership with Egypt further complicates Ethiopia’s relationships. The implications of such alliances may lead to an increased redistribution of power in the region, with potential risks of conflict heightening as the dynamics evolve.

The recent summit involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia marks a significant realignment in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, a region characterized by prolonged instability and a history of rivalries. Convened in Asmara, the summit was officially aimed at fostering cooperation amid regional security challenges; however, the underlying purpose seemed directed towards encircling Ethiopia, which remains a pivotal player in regional dynamics. Leaders Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia discussed the necessity of strengthening territorial integrity and resisting external influences, as outlined in their joint communiqué. The complex historical relationships within the Horn of Africa have often placed Ethiopia at the center of these tensions, particularly in light of its controversial engagements with Somaliland and escalating disputes with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The proposal for Ethiopia to utilize a section of Somaliland’s coastline for naval and commercial activities has intensified the delicate situation, especially as Somalia does not recognize Somaliland’s independence following its secession in 1991. Somalia’s military pact with Egypt in August underscores this crumbling dynamic for Ethiopia, with Egypt supplying arms to aid Somalia’s ongoing fight against the al-Shabaab insurgency. This military cooperation has the potential to consolidate the Cairo-Mogadishu alliance and further isolate Ethiopia. The summit discussions implicitly targeted Ethiopia’s actions, amid the intensifying rivalry stemming from the GERD project, which Egypt perceives as a serious existential threat to its Nile water supply. Despite the lack of direct mentions, Ethiopia’s maneuvers significantly shaped the context of the meeting. Egypt’s military assistance to Somalia and participation in regional security initiatives suggest a strategic positioning against Ethiopia’s expanding influence. Eritrea’s role in this coalition serves to enhance its leverage in a region where it has historically sought to assert its authority, given its strategic location by the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Historically starved for regional partnerships, Eritrea appears to view this collaboration as a means to mitigate Ethiopia’s rise while solidifying its own influence. The implications of this summit extend beyond mere cooperation; they indicate a potential redistribution of power in the region, marking a departure from previously established alliances. The participants’ concerted efforts to establish military and regional control could solidify a formidable bloc opposing Ethiopia, raising questions about future stability in the region and increasing the prospects for conflict. Egypt’s involvement, despite lacking direct borders with most of these states, invites scrutiny, with suggestions that Cairo may seek proxy forms of engagement against Ethiopia through Eritrea. The potential for increased aggression, alongside the insurgent threats posed by factions in Somalia, creates a precarious situation for Ethiopia. To navigate this evolving landscape, Ethiopia must prioritize diplomatic efforts, engaging not only with its immediate neighbors but also with international partners, such as the United States, in hopes of establishing a balanced political equation. Initiatives for collective management of Nile waters could serve to ameliorate tensions, yet Ethiopia must also communicate its intentions clearly to its regional partners so as to foster an environment of mutual trust. The manner in which Ethiopia responds to these shifting alliances will be pivotal in determining its own security and stability in the region.

The geopolitics of the Horn of Africa has been historically fraught with tension, largely due to territorial disputes, competition for resources, and intricate alliances among neighboring states. Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea — stemming from a protracted and bitter conflict leading to Eritrean independence in 1993 — have significantly influenced regional dynamics. In recent years, the tensions have been exacerbated by Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD, a project aimed at generating hydroelectric power, which Egypt views as a direct threat to its vital water resources derived from the Nile. Amidst these complexities, emerging alliances, particularly involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, are reshaping the power dynamics, especially in light of Ethiopia’s growing influence and military engagements.

The recent summit between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia represents a critical juncture in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. By aligning themselves against Ethiopia, these nations are not only aiming to bolster regional stability but are also establishing a counterweight to Ethiopia’s influence. This emerging alliance underscores the fragile nature of regional politics, characterized by historical grievances and complex interdependencies. As tensions increase, Ethiopia’s approach to diplomacy and regional engagement will be essential in determining its future stability and security.

Original Source: thehill.com