US Airstrikes Against Yemen’s Houthis Highlight Ongoing Challenges

The US has intensified airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi rebels under “Operation Rough Rider” since March, claiming to hit over 1,000 targets. Analysts question the effectiveness of these efforts, suggesting they may have strengthened Houthi ties with Iran. Despite claims of reduced Houthi capabilities, attacks continue, raising doubts about US strategy and the impact on regional dynamics.

The ongoing US aerial campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, known as “Operation Rough Rider,” has seen intense airstrikes since March 15. With over 1,000 targets reportedly hit, the campaign aims to curb Houthi aggression towards Red Sea shipping and increase pressure on Iran amid delicate nuclear negotiations. However, analysts are doubtful about the effectiveness of these actions in producing significant, long-term results.

Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group, points out that while some Houthi infrastructure has certainly been damaged and personnel lost, the group seems to adapt well to the campaign. He noted that the Houthis have actually seen increases in recruitment and fundraising despite the strikes: “Any losses are likely short-term and temporary,” he commented in a discussion with RFE/RL.

Adding to this concern, Jeremy Binnie, a defense analyst at Janes, asserts that the Houthis continue their attacks against both Israel and US drones, which undermines US claims of degrading their military capabilities. Binnie stated, “It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9.”

Recent incidents highlight the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, such as the US Navy’s admission of an F/A-18 fighter jet falling from the USS Harry S. Truman in a maneuver to evade a Houthi attack. Meanwhile, Houthi missile launches toward Israel have persisted, with the group claiming responsibility for strikes that prompted interceptions by the Israeli military on May 2.

Despite conflicting reports on the campaign’s impact, US Central Command (CENTCOM) maintains that the strikes have reduced the frequency and effectiveness of Houthi missile and drone attacks. According to CENTCOM, “Ballistic missile launches have dropped by 69 percent. Additionally, attacks from one-way attack drones have decreased by 55%.” They emphasize that Iranian support remains crucial in sustaining the Houthis’ capabilities.

However, analysts caution that the US strikes might be inadvertently solidifying the Houthis’ relationship with Iran. The Houthis, who are branded as a terrorist organization by the United States, are vital players within Iran’s “axis of resistance.” Their recent actions have elevated their standing within this alliance, particularly since the onset of the Gaza war in October 2023. They have claimed several attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, demonstrating a newfound assertiveness.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a warning directed at Iran on May 1, asserting that the US military’s capabilities are well known and threatening consequences at a time of their choosing. Nevertheless, Clarke posits that US military actions may paradoxically strengthen the Houthi-Iran bond. He questions whether any new nuclear agreement with Iran would alter Tehran’s support for the Houthis.

Binnie echoed this sentiment, stating that it remains uncertain whether the campaign is properly applying pressure on Iran. The planned fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US, initially set for May 3 in Rome, has been postponed, reportedly for “logistical reasons” as framed by Omani mediators. With weeks of sustained bombing behind it, the United States appears no closer to effectively deterring Houthi threats or undermining their political foundation, raising significant questions about the strategic value of the current military campaign.

In summary, the US bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, termed “Operation Rough Rider,” has targeted over 1,000 sites but questions linger regarding its effectiveness. Analysts suggest that the ongoing strikes may inadvertently consolidate Houthi power and alliance with Iran rather than diminish it. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the challenges ahead for the US remain daunting, particularly given the Houthis’ persistent assaults and the postponed nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States.

Original Source: www.rferl.org