Political Analyst Warns of Zimbabwe’s Fragile State Amidst Recent Stay-away Efforts

Zimbabwe witnessed a stay-away in late March 2025, which some citizens participated in but many ignored, citing survival needs over protest. Political analyst Eldred Masunungure emphasized the lack of organizational support for movements challenging the government. He proposed a return to a Government of National Unity while expressing doubt over its feasibility without overcoming the existing regime’s challenges.

In late March of this year, Zimbabwe witnessed an unusual stay-away as citizens refrained from their daily routines, transforming bustling urban areas into almost deserted spaces. Political analyst Eldred Masunungure from the University of Zimbabwe noted that many Zimbabweans did not heed calls for street protests made by war veteran Blessed ‘Bombshell’ Geza, who has been vocal about the need to oust the current administration led by President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Masunungure explained that the lack of protest reflects people’s awareness of the potential risks involved in standing up to state power, warning that the government is quick to deploy its security apparatus against dissent. He stated, “People are rational enough to know the dangers inherent in confronting the coercive arms of the state which the leadership is ready to deploy as a first rather than last resort.”

Moreover, Masunungure pointed to a critical observation about last week’s indefinite stay-away call by Geza. Many chose to ignore it, labeling the idea as “unstrategic” since it conflicted with the daily survival needs of citizens living primarily through informal work. He elaborated, saying, “Participating in an indefinite stay-away is suicidal, hence they defied the call. It is plain common sense.”

He also underscored a significant issue: the absence of a solid organizational framework to support uprisings. The so-called Geza movement, according to him, appears to be largely a solo effort that lacks the sustainability critical for political movements. “The reality of present day politics is that there is no organisational political home for those who are not inclined towards Zanu PF,” Masunungure remarked.

The political landscape in Zimbabwe today can be termed tragic, as many citizens feel politically orphaned, following the decline of significant opposition parties like the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). He suggested that the way forward lies in the establishment of a resilient political organization led by trusted figures.

Describing Zimbabwe’s state as one of chronic fragility, Masunungure identified factors like industrial-scale corruption, rampant unemployment, and a troubled economy as part of this precarious environment. He cited foreboding uncertainties regarding the future of both the country and its institutions, stating, “The defining feature of this type of fragility is systemic uncertainty.”

To mend the nation, he posited a need for a new Government of National Unity (GNU), reminiscent of the successful period from 2009 to 2013 which many Zimbabweans recall fondly. Nevertheless, he expressed skepticism about achieving this under a virtually one-party regime, particularly given civil society’s constrained position following recent legal challenges.

Ultimately, Masunungure voiced hope in the church stepping in to facilitate a national dialogue, potentially ushering in a GNU-like framework with aid from regional leaders. He concluded with a sobering perspective, indicating that Zimbabwe’s state of uncertainty is likely to persist, saying, “The bottom line though is that Zimbabwe is likely to be in this state of uncertainty, confusion and even chaos for the foreseeable future.”

The political analysis by Eldred Masunungure reveals significant insight into the current state of unrest and disillusionment in Zimbabwe. The absence of robust organizational support for opposition and protests reflects a broader crisis in the political landscape, compounded by citizens’ hesitance to confront state power. Masunungure’s suggestion for a new Government of National Unity offers a glimmer of hope, though skepticism remains regarding its feasibility given the current regime’s stronghold. Ultimately, the specter of ongoing uncertainty looms large over Zimbabwe’s future.

Original Source: www.newzimbabwe.com