Ethiopia: Escalation in Tigray Heightens Fears of Regional Instability

Ethiopia’s Tigray region faces heightened tensions two years after the peace accords signed to end a civil war. Economic instability, factionalism among leaders, and fears of renewed conflict are prevalent, with observers indicating that war appears imminent. The situation is further complicated by regional crises and Middle Eastern influences.

Ethiopia is facing rising tensions in its Tigray region as more than two years have passed since the Ethiopia-Tigray peace accords were signed. Despite the Pretoria Agreement aiming to conclude a vicious civil war, fears of renewed conflict loom large. Residents like Kiflom Abraha in Mekelle express concerns over economic instability and declining quality of life, reflected in long bank queues and soaring living costs.

Although the November 2022 agreement stabilized the region temporarily, many individuals remain displaced, and societal unrest is palpable. Nigisti Garede, head of the Tigray Teachers’ Association, noted the emergence of factionalism among Tigrayan leaders, resulting in societal fears and a lack of law and order.

The Tigray elite is now fractured, sidelining key figure Getachew Reda in favor of Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Once a united entity, the TPLF has devolved into competing factions, raising alarms about potential instability in Tigray, particularly along the Eritrean border, where tensions already exist.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s prior reformist stance has been overshadowed by his institutional conflicts with Tigray’s political elite. While he earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for peace efforts with Eritrea, his measures escalated tensions with Tigray. Analyst Martin Plaut remarked that the 2020-2022 conflict resulted from efforts to weaken TPLF power, which ultimately failed.

Political actors and observers anticipate an escalation of conflict, with Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae stating that war appears inevitable. Multiple stakeholders are urging for bolstered support for the interim administration. As Ethiopia prepares for further conflict, Eritrea seems poised to engage as well.

The backdrop also includes regional crises, such as the ongoing war in Sudan and recent tensions between Somalia and Somaliland regarding Ethiopia’s port arrangements. Additionally, Ethiopia’s controversial hydropower initiatives on the Nile have incited disputes with Egypt and Sudan.

Middle Eastern interests, particularly those of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are significant in influencing the stability of the Horn of Africa. Plaut indicated that while Saudi Arabia may back Ethiopia, it remains cautious of the UAE’s assertiveness, resulting in a complex web of shifting alliances impacting regional outcomes.

In summary, Ethiopia’s Tigray region is once more on the brink of conflict as factional divides and economic distress emerge in the wake of the 2022 peace accords. Continued discord among Tigrayan leaders has raised public fears, while both regional and international dynamics play a critical role in shaping the crisis. Stakeholders advocate for interventions to stabilize the interim administration amid looming threats of renewed violence.

Original Source: www.dw.com