Decreasing Storm Risks Near Caribbean and Potential Development in Central America

Forecasters have reduced the likelihood of a new storm forming near the Caribbean to 20% for the next week, while another disturbance off Central America has a 40% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression. Heavy rainfall is anticipated in parts of Central America and southern Mexico this weekend.

Forecasters indicate that the likelihood of a new storm developing near the Caribbean is decreasing. The National Hurricane Center has downgraded the potential for a disturbance located in the mid-Atlantic, bringing the odds of its formation down to 20% over the upcoming week and to just 10% for the next two days. Even if this system manages to endure the unfavorable conditions of dry air and destructive wind shear from a nearby cold front, prevailing computer models suggest it would travel westward across the Caribbean as a weak storm characterized primarily by rain. Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore stated, “It’s either going to get absorbed by the front or die moving west. With the deep fall trough and front pushing through Florida this creates a safe haven for the USA.” In contrast, another disturbance located off the Central American coast appears to have an increasing chance of development, currently assessed at 40% for strengthening into a tropical depression over the next two to seven days. Forecasters highlighted that while this system holds potential for intensification over open water, most models predict it might loop back toward land, possibly leading to significant rainfall and flooding. As noted by the hurricane center, “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.”

The article addresses the current state of weather patterns in and around the Caribbean, focusing on the potential development of storms as evaluated by forecasters from the National Hurricane Center. It discusses two distinct disturbances, one in the mid-Atlantic with declining formation chances, and another off the Central American coast with rising probabilities for development into a tropical depression. This information is significant for understanding regional weather forecasts, storm preparedness, and potential impacts on areas susceptible to flooding and heavy rainfall.

In summary, the probability of a new storm forming in the Caribbean is diminishing, with the National Hurricane Center reporting a 20% chance over the next week for a specific mid-Atlantic disturbance. Conversely, a separate disturbance near Central America has a 40% chance of developing, which could lead to heavy rainfall in Central America and southern Mexico. Awareness and preparedness remain essential as these weather patterns evolve.

Original Source: www.miamiherald.com