Israel’s Strategic Maneuvers in Post-Assad Syria: Opportunities and Challenges

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria presents Israel with perceived strategic advantages, prompting Prime Minister Netanyahu to advocate for a restructured Syria. Through military operations and alliances with minority groups, Israel seeks to expand its influence while ensuring national security. This complexity is mirrored by the involvement of regional powers, raising the stakes in an already precarious geopolitical landscape.

In December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the potential upheaval in Syria following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. He recognized this turmoil as a chance for Israel to reshape the region, particularly advocating for a fragmented Syria composed of smaller autonomous regions. This sentiment was echoed by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who underscored the need for a federal system in Syria.

Netanyahu has capitalized on recent unrest, particularly after Hamas’s attack on October 7, to assert that these shifting dynamics constitute a significant benefit for Israel. He perceives the developments in Syria as direct consequences of Israeli strategies and is actively pursuing territorial control by forging alliances with various ethnic minority groups.

Following Assad’s removal, Israel escalated its military involvement in Syria, marked by intensive ground operations and airstrikes targeting Assad’s forces. This marked a departure from Israel’s longstanding tacit agreement with the Assad regime, and Israeli military undertakings have moved to secure strategic positions, including the capture of Mount Hermon.

Historically, Israel’s border with Syria has been static since the 1967 war, after Israel annexed the Golan Heights. However, recent actions have obscured these boundaries, allowing Israel to exert greater territorial control as it continuously engages with local minority groups. This shift occurs as Hafez al-Assad’s steadfast rule and Bashar’s military dealings with Iran left a complex legacy.

Newly installed Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s recent moves signal a departure from direct confrontation with Israel, framing his leadership as moderate. However, the Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz remains wary, suggesting that Sharaa’s recent actions against the Alawite community reveal his extremist roots amid emerging challenges to his regime.

Israeli officials suggest a long-term military presence in Syria to protect minority groups, especially the Druze, and to counteract possible threats from the new regime. With mounting tensions, Israeli scholars warn that instability may trigger broader escalations against the backdrop of an indeterminate Syrian state.

As Netanyahu maintains his outreach to Syria’s Druze community, he emphasizes their protection from any oppressive regime and offers potential employment in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. However, many Druze individuals have expressed skepticism regarding Israeli intentions, demonstrating a divide within their community concerning potential alliances.

Alongside Israel, other regional players such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia are also vying for influence in post-Assad Syria. Turkey plans to exercise military power via defense agreements, while Saudi Arabia’s engagement with Sharaa highlights shifting allegiances within the region, particularly against Iran’s declining influence.

The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with multiple nations seeking to assert control over Syria. Israel’s proactive military stance is one cornerstone of a larger strategy to preempt any hostile activity, thereby ensuring its national security in the face of uncertainties in the Middle East.

Israel’s recent activities in Syria signal a bold shift in regional dynamics following the fall of Assad. Prime Minister Netanyahu sees significant opportunity amidst the chaos, pushing for territorial gains and alliances with minority groups. While Israel aims to protect the Druze and Kurds, the regional response remains complex, with various factions vying for influence amidst ongoing conflicts. This developing situation underscores the potential for escalation and requires careful navigation to avoid wider tensions.

Original Source: www.cnn.com