Post-Afghanistan Realities: Pakistan’s Strategic Positioning Amid US Policy Shifts

Pakistan is navigating a complicated relationship with the United States under President Donald Trump, where past cooperation is overshadowed by suspicion and Trump’s transactional foreign policy. Following Trump’s suspension of financial aid in 2018, relations improved slightly during interactions with former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Concurrently, Pakistan’s growing ties with China complicate its diplomatic standing with Washington, especially amidst the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India seeks to reinforce its role in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

In the wake of the Afghanistan situation, Pakistan faces complex dynamics as it maneuvers through United States foreign policy under President Donald Trump. The longstanding power structure in Pakistan is traditionally influenced by three pillars: Allah, Army, and America. These relations, historically marked by fluctuating cooperation and skepticism, are expected to experience additional turbulence under Trump’s transactional diplomatic style that favors short-term agreements over sustained strategic partnerships.

During Trump’s initial term, US-Pakistan relations suffered and were highlighted by the suspension of $1.3 billion in security aid in 2018 due to Pakistan’s alleged support of militant groups. Nevertheless, later interactions improved slightly as Trump engaged with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan, even referring to him as a “good friend.” These developments indicated a strategic rapport reflective of Trump’s populist leadership style that resonates with Khan’s anti-elite narrative.

Despite earlier support, President Trump has not prioritized Khan’s challenges regarding political persecution, emphasizing the absence of consistent US backing. Over the past few years, Pakistan has established a deepening partnership with China, driven by investments from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and enhanced defense collaborations. While beneficial economically, this shift complicates Pakistan’s relations with Washington, especially in the context of US concerns over its rivalry with Beijing.

The hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has further diminished Pakistan’s relevance in US strategic calculations, complicating its diplomatic stance. As Pakistan seeks to maintain its significance, it may raise security concerns tied to Afghanistan to garner US attention, citing threats emerging from anti-Pakistan groups utilizing abandoned US military equipment. Historically, Pakistan has employed jihadist networks to advance its security objectives, particularly regarding India and Afghanistan.

India, on the other hand, confronts a dual scenario of opportunities and risks with Trump’s demonstrated preference for strongman leadership and bilateral diplomacy. While this might reinforce India’s position in the Indo-Pacific, uncertainties related to trade and the inconsistency of US policy pose challenges for New Delhi as it attempts to balance its relationships with both the US and Pakistan.

The evolving geopolitical landscape necessitates that Pakistan navigate its interests amidst the complexities of US foreign policy under President Trump. The balance of cooperation and discontent in US-Pakistan relations, coupled with Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, presents both challenges and opportunities. In contrast, India must prepare for an unpredictable US policy trajectory while capitalizing on its standing as a preferred partner in the region. Islamabad’s efforts to gain US attention by highlighting security threats from Afghanistan may face limitations due to the diminished strategic leanings of the US towards that region.

Original Source: www.newslaundry.com