Rising Tensions: An Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Emerges in the Horn of Africa

Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia have forged an alliance against Ethiopia which they perceive as a threat, particularly in light of Ethiopia’s control over the Nile and territorial ambitions. This collaboration includes military support and aims to strengthen Somali institutions against terrorism, raising concerns over potential regional instability and exacerbation of local conflicts.

An emerging trilateral alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses a potential challenge to Ethiopia amid rising regional tensions. This partnership was officially established during a summit in Asmara, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The leaders signed a security collaboration agreement aimed at fortifying Somali institutions to address both internal and external threats, particularly targeting terrorism. The backdrop of the alliance is marked by Ethiopia’s recent strategic maneuvers, including a controversial agreement to lease coastal territory from Somaliland, which Somalia claims as its own. As tensions with Ethiopia continue over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt argues threatens its water supply, the military and strategic dynamics in the Horn of Africa are shifting. Both Egypt and Eritrea have been involved in Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict, supporting Saudi Arabian and Turkish interests against Ethiopia’s alignment with the United Arab Emirates, which backs the Sudanese paramilitary forces. Notably, military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia has raised concerns about its implications for al-Shabab, as this alliance may bolster militant recruitment against the Somali government. Additionally, criticism has arisen regarding Somalia’s potential for proxy conflicts, with fears that longstanding clan divisions could be exacerbated. The shifting alliances, characterized by Egypt’s military aid to Somalia and Eritrean troops’ presence along contested borders, signal a precarious balance of power in the region that could ignite further conflict.

The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has seen a notable alignment of nations driven by historical disputes and contemporary strategic interests. Egypt has long viewed Ethiopia’s control over the Nile River, particularly the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as a direct threat to its water security. This has motivated Egypt to strengthen ties with neighbors Eritrea and Somalia, both of which share a vested interest in countering Ethiopia’s influence. Ethiopia, which is landlocked after losing access to the Red Sea, has increasingly pursued inter-regional agreements, including leasing land in Somaliland as part of its broader goal to enhance trade and port access. Meanwhile, Egypt has been proactive in addressing its diplomatic and military objectives through arms supplies and partnerships in Somalia, reinforcing a coalition of states opposing Ethiopia’s maneuvers in the region. This development necessitates careful monitoring, with the potential for heightened conflict influenced by external alliances and historical grievances.

In summary, the strategic alliance forming between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia represents a significant shifting of allegiances in the Horn of Africa, primarily focused on countering Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. The implications of this partnership could rekindle tensions, particularly as al-Shabab exploits the situation for its advantage. Observers must remain vigilant regarding the potential for heightened conflict as this region grapples with complex security dynamics among rival states.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com