The Importance of Understanding Pakistan’s Western Frontier in India-Pakistan Relations

C Raja Mohan argues that India should focus on the significant changes along the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan rather than the mainly symbolic diplomatic engagements between India and Pakistan. The article emphasizes the implications of the rising Pashtun nationalism and the complex internal dynamics in Pakistan, suggesting that these may alter the longstanding bilateral challenges faced by India and Pakistan.

In recent discourses surrounding India’s relationship with Pakistan, critical developments along the Durand Line, which separates Pakistan and Afghanistan, have been largely overlooked. This oversight merits attention, particularly in light of the recent Pashtun Qaumi Jirga held in the Khyber district, which is suspected to possess significant implications for regional dynamics, eclipsing the potential outcomes of External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad—the first by an Indian foreign minister in a decade. The ongoing turbulence in relations between India and Pakistan is often characterized by an excess of excitement and trepidation surrounding diplomatic engagements that yield little substantial change. Despite expectations that Jaishankar’s visit may rekindle stalled discussions, it is imperative to recognize that the foundational issues of their bilateral relations remain unresolved, regardless of any temporary improvements. The long-standing discord between the two countries has rendered their relationship stagnant, lacking relevance to broader regional or global contexts. This stagnation does attract international attention during crises, particularly those that risk nuclear escalation. However, the profound implications of historical events, namely the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, have reshaped Pakistan’s western borderlands and the security landscape of South Asia more substantially than the India-Pakistan narrative. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has exacerbated tensions along the Durand Line. Pakistan’s aspirations to exert influence over Afghanistan through the Taliban have been undermined, while the latter’s assertions of autonomy have ignited a resurgence of Pashtun nationalism against Pakistan’s military establishment. Concurrently, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is accused of exploiting the chaos in its endeavors for greater autonomy, thereby threatening the stability of the Pakistani state itself. The emergence and subsequent suppression of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) highlights the increasing unrest in the Pashtun territories. The PTM has articulated numerous demands, including the withdrawal of state military presence and acknowledgment of past enforced disappearances. Rather than addressing these pressing concerns, the Pakistani government has opted for repression, imposing a ban on the PTM, further alienating a large segment of the Pashtun population. Additionally, mounting dissatisfaction in the Baloch regions fosters further instability, evidenced by violence against foreign and sometimes native workers. The intertwined struggles of the Pashtun and Baloch communities signal a turbulent horizon for Pakistan’s western frontier, suggesting that these internal dynamics will inevitably affect its neighboring countries, particularly India. In summary, the geopolitical changes occurring along Pakistan’s western borderlands not only affect internal governance but also shape regional relationships, including those with India. Understanding the complexities of this evolving landscape could yield critical insights into addressing longstanding bilateral challenges faced by India and Pakistan.

The article discusses the often neglected geopolitical dynamics along the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan, suggesting that these developments are more crucial than the hype surrounding India-Pakistan diplomacy. It underscores the interconnectedness between historical events such as the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with current regional stability, particularly noting the consequences of the Taliban’s resurgence on both Pashtun nationalism and Pakistani state authority. The rising tensions involving groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement reflect a significant churn within Pakistani society that poses challenges to regional stability, which directly impacts India as a neighboring nation.

In conclusion, while the focus on bilateral talks between India and Pakistan is understandable, it overlooks the vital transformations occurring along Pakistan’s borders that could significantly affect regional security and India-Pakistan relations. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing a comprehensive approach to address the persistent challenges between the two countries, which seems increasingly influenced by the socio-political developments within Pakistan’s western territories.

Original Source: indianexpress.com