Egypt Expands Military Involvement in Somalia Amid Ethiopian Withdrawal Deadline

Egypt is ramping up its military presence in Somalia ahead of the December 31 deadline for Ethiopian troops to withdraw, with plans to replace them and support Somali forces against Al Shabab militants. Tensions between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia are escalating due to longstanding disputes over water rights and regional security.

Egypt is in the process of enhancing its military mission in Somalia as the December 31 deadline approaches for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country. Reports indicate that Egypt is not only preparing to replace Ethiopian forces but is also actively training and supporting Somali security forces in their efforts against militants affiliated with Al Qaeda. The relationship between Egypt and Somalia has grown notably closer, especially following the military cooperation agreement signed in August, paving the way for Egypt to deploy military advisers, trainers, and counter-terrorism experts to Mogadishu. By the year’s end, it is anticipated that thousands of Egyptian personnel will be involved in this mission. Ethiopia currently has approximately 22,000 troops stationed in Somalia, deployed under a bilateral agreement and as part of the African Union peacekeeping operations. Tensions have risen in the region as Cairo and Mogadishu voice strong objections to Ethiopian initiatives. Egypt has raised concerns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), asserting that it threatens the nation’s vital water supply, while Somalia has expressed that its sovereignty is compromised by Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, which grants Ethiopia access to a port on the Red Sea. In a move that illustrates the growing militarization of this conflict, forces allied with Egypt have already begun strategically positioning themselves along the supply routes used by Ethiopian forces to mitigate potential increases in Ethiopian troop numbers before the withdrawal deadline. Ethiopia, in response to Egypt’s military maneuvers, has reportedly increased its troop presence in Somalia amidst fears of escalating violence due to the influx of arms into the region. Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie has criticized external military involvement, warning that foreign arms might exacerbate Somalia’s security landscape and could potentially end up in the hands of terrorist groups. The Somali Foreign Minister has countered that Ethiopia’s allegations are diversionary tactics meant to obscure its own smuggling operations across porous Somali borders. On the diplomatic front, long-standing tensions surrounding the GERD have continued to loom over relations, with Egypt seeking an internationally binding agreement on the river’s water rights. Despite a decade of negotiations yielding little progress, both Egypt and Sudan remain wary of Ethiopia’s intentions regarding the dam’s operations and reservoir filling. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has reiterated the significance of the Nile, referring to it as “the chief source of life in our nation.” Additionally, Egypt’s recent engagements with Eritrea underscore its commitment to bolstering military alliances in the Horn of Africa, as it pushes for a resolution with Ethiopia regarding the Nile water disputes. In a recent summit in Asmara, President El Sisi expressed Egypt’s commitment to supporting Somalia, stating, “We discussed practical suggestions to offer this help,” emphasizing Egypt’s ongoing efforts to ensure safety and stability in Somalia and beyond.

The military and diplomatic landscape of the Horn of Africa has been increasingly shaped by the interplay of regional powers such as Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Following Ethiopia’s significant military presence in Somalia under the auspices of African Union peacekeeping, the urgency for Egyptian intervention has escalated due to Ethiopia’s contentious projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo fears could diminish its vital water resources. Amid these concerns, Egyptian military support is aimed at enhancing Somali capabilities against Al Shabab militants while addressing security tensions involving Ethiopian ambitions in the region. This scenario is further exacerbated by historical grievances and recent political shifts resulting from agreements with Somaliland.

In summary, Egypt’s military buildup in Somalia reflects its strategic response to the impending withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and a broader effort to secure its interests in the Nile basin. This development not only reinforces Egypt’s commitment to Somalia’s stability but also emphasizes the complexities surrounding the GERD negotiations and regional power dynamics that continue to evolve. As tensions persist, the responses from Ethiopia and eventual outcomes in Somalia will be crucial indicators of stability in the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com