Concerns Rise Over Renewed Conflict in South Sudan as Political Tensions Escalate

Renewed tensions between South Sudan’s leaders pose risks for civil war, with analysts warning about escalating violence and instability. The 2018 peace agreement is threatened by unresolved political conflicts and distrust, necessitating urgent dialogue for de-escalation. Regional leaders are intervening to mediate, as the country faces the specter of renewed conflict stemming from recent violent clashes and arrests of political figures.

Rising tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar threaten to plunge South Sudan back into civil war. Analyst Edmund Yakani warns that if these tensions are not adequately addressed, the country may experience a return to ‘full-scale civil war.’ He notes that recent violence was ignited by disputes regarding the replacement of longstanding soldiers in the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF).

The situation worsened following President Kiir’s dismissal of three ministers as part of a Cabinet reshuffle linked to the political crisis. Concurrently, a U.S. evacuation order has been issued due to increasing security concerns. Regional leaders, particularly from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), are seeking to mediate the crisis, convening an emergency summit to address the situation.

Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has faced significant instability, culminating in a civil war that erupted two years later. Although a peace deal was established in 2018 between Kiir’s SPLM and Machar’s SPLM/IO, crucial reforms—including disarmament and election preparations—remain unfulfilled, exacerbating tensions.

Violence has surged recently, beginning with a militia linked to Machar seizing an army base in the strategic town of Nasir. Yakani attributes this violence to the refusal of the White Army militia to accept new SSPDF forces. The attack on a UN helicopter during an evacuation attempt, resulting in numerous fatalities, further illustrates the deteriorating security situation.

In the capital, Juba, tensions escalated after Kiir ordered the arrest of several key allies of Machar, prompting fears of conflict near the capital. Daniel Akech, a senior analyst, highlighted the precarious situation, indicating that any violence near Juba would increase risks for opposition officials arrested in the area.

Analysts emphasize the ongoing deficit of trust between Kiir and Machar as a critical issue contributing to South Sudan’s instability. Since the start of their conflict in 2013, mutual accusations have intensified, with leaders failing to cooperate effectively in fulfilling the agreement established in 2018.

The International Crisis Group has issued grave warnings regarding South Sudan’s descent toward renewed conflict, echoing Yakani’s concerns about the necessity for urgent dialogue among leaders. The peace agreement established in 2018 is now at risk, as escalating violence undermines its implementation.

The UN Commission on Human Rights has also expressed alarm over the destabilizing trends that threaten the peace agreement, urging leaders to refocus efforts on the peace process and uphold human rights. Despite the challenges within the power-sharing deal, which allows Kiir to appoint officials with some restrictions, implementation remains stalled, intensifying fears of civil war. The continued detention of senior military officials from the SPLM/IO raises the potential for further conflict, according to Yakani, who warned that such actions could lead to a resurgence of civil strife in the region.

In summary, South Sudan is at a critical juncture, with escalating political tensions between key leaders posing significant risks to peace and stability. The fragility of the 2018 peace agreement underscores the need for immediate dialogue and trust-building measures to prevent a return to civil war. Experts highlight that regional mediation efforts are essential to de-escalate tensions and ensure effective governance moving forward. As the international community watches closely, actions taken by South Sudan’s leaders in the coming days will be pivotal in determining the nation’s future.

Original Source: www.aa.com.tr