Escalating Tensions: The Arms Race Between Egypt and Ethiopia in Somalia

Egypt and Ethiopia’s rivalry over the Nile has escalated into an arms race in Somalia, impacting regional security and cooperation against terrorism. Somalia has asserted its sovereignty in allowing military support, while both nations trade accusations of arms smuggling and destabilization, complicating efforts for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.

In the ongoing tension over the Nile, Egypt and Ethiopia have entered an arms race in Somalia, which threatens their collaboration in combating terrorism. Somalia affirms its right to determine foreign military support and arms delivery, yet Ethiopia perceives this as a threat to its security given Somalia’s growing ties with Egypt. Egypt’s recent provision of arms to Somalia, coinciding with plans to deploy troops there, has heightened the potential for conflict. Reports indicate that Egypt has increased its military shipments to Mogadishu to enhance the capabilities of the Somali army, further complicating the regional security dynamic. Ethiopia, meanwhile, has expressed alarm at the implications of these arms shipments, emphasizing the risk they pose of empowering the militant group al-Shabaab. Ethiopian officials characterise the supply of arms to Somalia at this stage of its security force development as fundamentally destabilizing. In retaliation, Somalia has condemned Ethiopia’s prior arms deliveries to Puntland, labeling them a blatant violation of its sovereignty. The discord, rooted in historical grievances and recent agreements, has also compelled Somalia to seek Egypt’s inclusion in future military support frameworks in lieu of Ethiopia’s attendance. Ethiopia, feeling slighted and unappreciated for its past assistance against Islamist insurgents, has dismissively refuted claims of arms smuggling, while Puntland’s leadership calls for broader political resolution to ensure stability in the region.

The geopolitical rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly over control and management of the Nile River, has longstanding historical roots. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by Ethiopia has been a point of contention for Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply. As tensions rise, Somalia—a nation grappling with its sovereignty and security challenges—has become a new stage for military and political maneuvering by these two powers. The recent military engagement through arms shipments and troop deployments signals a potential shift in security alliances and intensifies the existing turmoil in the Horn of Africa, which is still facing significant threats from extremist groups.

The arms race instigated by Egypt’s military aid to Somalia and the response from Ethiopia illustrates the deepening divide between these two nations, further exacerbated by regional dynamics and Somalia’s fragile security landscape. As both countries reinforce their military capabilities in a zone fraught with instability, the potential for conflict appears increasingly likely, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic interventions and respect for Somalia’s sovereignty. The call for peace and the stabilization of political matters in Somalia is paramount to appeasing mounting tensions and fostering long-term security in the region.

Original Source: nation.africa