South Sudan on the Brink of Renewed Conflict Amid Rising Tensions

South Sudan is on the verge of renewed conflict following escalating tensions involving Riek Machar’s militia and President Salva Kiir’s forces. Economic pressures from the Sudanese civil war have compounded instability. The fragile 2018 peace agreement is threatened, and hostilities may spread from Upper Nile to other regions. Urgent diplomatic intervention is necessary to prevent catastrophic outcomes for South Sudan.

South Sudan is on the brink of renewed conflict following a series of violent escalations. On March 4, a Nuer militia affiliated with Riek Machar, the nation’s first vice president, seized a military base in Nasir. These actions came after allegations that President Salva Kiir’s forces previously attacked Machar’s supporters in Ulang county, raising tensions in the capital, Juba. The ongoing unrest threatens the fragile unity government established under a 2018 peace agreement meant to conclude a prolonged civil war.

The 2018 peace accord between Kiir and Machar has always been unstable, though it has thus far minimized direct clashes. However, violence continues to erupt at local levels, largely disconnected from their rivalry. The neighboring Sudanese civil war, which ignited in April 2023 between rival military factions, has further exacerbated South Sudan’s instability by significantly reducing government revenues, thereby inflicting economic distress on Kiir’s administration. This situation strains the president’s capacity to uphold his regime amidst prevailing discontent.

Kiir’s diplomatic relations with both sides in the Sudanese conflict are precarious, as he has been perceived as favoring General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s military while also needing to negotiate with General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) to maintain access to key oil pipelines. Many in Juba suspect that the Sudanese military has rekindled ties with Nuer militias, as evidenced by a sudden increase in violence within Upper Nile. If substantiated, these suspicions suggest Burhan aims to establish territorial control along the border, potentially facilitating a major military push in the region.

Furthermore, uprisings in Upper Nile could herald the initial spillover effects from Sudan’s turmoil into South Sudan. There are fears that the Nuer militia may attempt to capture Malakal, South Sudan’s capital in the Upper Nile region, which could ignite widespread communal violence. Any large-scale conflict in Malakal would likely have detrimental ramifications for the surrounding areas and destabilize the entire nation further.

Within Juba, Machar is under significant guard due to previous tensions surrounding the capital’s military. Following the death of Major General Majur Dak during recent hostilities, the fear of reprisals against Machar’s allies is growing. Presently, speculation suggests Kiir may be leveraging the recent incidents to consolidate Dinka support for himself amid rising unrest and competition over the presidency, with rumors of his deteriorating health complicating the political landscape.

Should the current regime collapse, the consequences for South Sudan could be disastrous. Renewed civil war may lead to atrocities, uncontrolled militia activity, and increased regional conflict, especially as displaced factions could align with Sudanese leaders for material support. The ramifications of such a breakdown would be felt across the region, threatening overall stability.

To mitigate this scenario, regional leaders must rapidly engage in diplomatic efforts to defuse escalating tensions. Notable figures like Kenyan President William Ruto have already initiated discussions with Kiir and Machar. Coordination with influential leaders such as South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed may enhance these efforts while the United Nations prepares to intervene for civilian protection. An urgent diplomatic intervention is essential to prevent an impending descent into chaos and large-scale violence in South Sudan, which could replay the tragedies of the past.

In summary, South Sudan faces a critical juncture as tensions escalate towards potential full-scale conflict. The precarious balance established by the 2018 peace agreement is at risk of collapse, primarily influenced by the neighboring Sudanese war and internal strife. The implications of destabilization could be catastrophic, leading to renewed ethnic violence and regional conflict. Thus, proactive high-level diplomatic efforts from influential African leaders and international organizations are imperative to alleviate tensions and stave off further violence, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

Original Source: www.pmldaily.com