Sudan’s Civil Conflict: Humanitarian Crisis and Foreign Interventions

Sudan’s civil conflict, nearing two years, has led to a grave humanitarian crisis with 30 million needing urgent aid. Military coups undermined democratic efforts initiated after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The RSF and SAF are engaged in a brutal struggle, leading to massive civilian displacement, food shortages, and international interference exacerbating the violence. Prospects for a return to democracy appear increasingly remote, with conflicting interests at play.

The civil conflict in Sudan approaches its two-year anniversary as the nation endures severe repercussions from the ongoing violence. The United Nations Secretary-General recently characterized the situation as having a “staggering scale and brutality,” with an estimated 30 million citizens urgently requiring humanitarian assistance, alongside 9 million people displaced within and outside the country.

Following the popular uprising in 2018-19 that led to the ousting of autocrat Omar al-Bashir, Sudan was positioned towards a democratic transition. A civilian-military “Sovereignty Council” was established to facilitate this movement until an abrupt military coup in October 2021 effectively halted progress, retaining power under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lt. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as “Hemedti.”

The RSF, which evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militia known for violence in Darfur, grew from 5,000 fighters to approximately 100,000 by early 2023 and maintained a vital role in undermining efforts at renewing democracy. The Political Framework Agreement of December 2022 proposed a restoration of civilian governance but failed to resolve underlying tensions between the military factions.

In April 2023, hostilities escalated as Dagalo’s RSF launched attacks on Sudanese army bases, leading to conflicts across 14 of Sudan’s 18 provinces, notably prioritizing Darfur regions. By October, RSF forces captured significant territories including Khartoum, prompting General al-Burhan to relocate his command to Port Sudan. The RSF’s control over critical agricultural regions raised alarms of man-made famine effects.

The United States and Saudi Arabia attempted a diplomatic revival of civilian leadership in Sudan throughout 2022, but actual progress remained elusive. Humanitarian crises deepened, with the RSF and SAF both accused of widespread human rights violations and exacerbating food shortages by obstructing aid.

International actors, particularly the UAE, increased tensions further by providing weapons to the RSF. Amidst conflicting foreign interests, the SAF sought alliances with Iran and Russia to assuage the imbalance, thereby complicating the internal dynamics of the conflict. The presence of Russian and Chinese entities demonstrated shifts in global engagement with the ongoing crisis.

Despite the counter-attacks led by the SAF yielding results, the humanitarian situation deteriorated, inciting further violence against civilians. By early 2025, renewed SAF control in Khartoum raised questions about the de facto partition of Sudan, with both sides recognizing their territorial divisions as they vie for political power.

With ambitions for a technocratic wartime government by al-Burhan clashing with RSF claims for a government of unity, the prospects for a restored democracy seem grim. The ongoing violence has left Sudanese citizens in despair, no closer to the democratic aspirations of recent history, while international attention continues to be minimal.

In summary, Sudan’s civil conflict has wrought profound devastation on its populace and thwarted hopes for democratic governance. Despite international diplomatic efforts, the emergence of powerful militia factions, and military coups have led to a fractured state. As humanitarian disasters compound, the path to restoring peace and democracy remains elusive, with significant portions of the population suffering the consequences of the war. The involvement of external powers further complicates the situation, indicating a need for renewed international focus on Sudan to alleviate its ongoing crisis.

Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com