Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in the Horn of Africa: Focusing on Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan

This report examines the extensive impact of floods leading to over 185 million internal displacements globally since 2008, with Africa alone accounting for 29 million cases. Focusing on Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, it introduces a new flood displacement risk model that employs a unique vulnerability assessment. The model predicts a significant potential increase in displacement risks, especially under pessimistic climate scenarios. The findings are intended to guide policymakers in disaster risk reduction initiatives.

This comprehensive report details the significant impact of floods on internal displacement, revealing that globally, over 185 million individuals have been displaced since 2008 due to flooding. In Africa specifically, approximately 29 million people were driven from their homes from 2008 to 2022, marking it as the second most affected continent. The focus of this research is on the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, where a novel flood displacement risk model has been introduced. Developed as part of Work Package 3 of the HABITABLE project, this model aims to facilitate the preparation of precise future displacement estimations that will aid in formulating effective policies.

The Horn of Africa, encompassing Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, faces prevalent challenges related to natural disasters, specifically flooding and drought. These climatic events have recurrently led to substantial internal displacements, which necessitate a thorough understanding of the risks involved. This report presents a new risk model that systematically evaluates the vulnerabilities associated with flood-induced displacement, incorporating both direct and indirect impacts on communities. By utilizing advanced risk assessment methodologies, this study seeks to equip policymakers with the necessary data to devise strategies capable of mitigating and managing such displacements effectively.

In summary, this report underscores the increasing displacements induced by floods in the Horn of Africa, advocating for the implementation of a comprehensive flood displacement risk model. The findings suggest a probable escalation in average annual displacement, potentially reaching two to four times current levels, with extreme scenarios even suggesting a ninefold increase for regions like Sudan. It recommends robust policies and strategic measures aimed at alleviating the adverse effects of flood-induced displacements while safeguarding vulnerable populations.

Original Source: reliefweb.int