Declining Birth Rates in Argentina: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

Argentina’s recent birth statistics reveal a continued decline, with 460,902 babies born in 2023, reflecting a downward trend in fertility rates influenced by global patterns. This demographic shift presents both challenges, such as an ageing population, and opportunities for enhancing women’s education and economic contributions. Experts emphasize the need for tailored public policies to adapt to these changing dynamics.

In recent weeks, Argentina’s Health Ministry released the annual birth statistics for 2023, indicating that approximately 460,902 babies were born across the country. This represents a continual decline in birth rates, following a previous figure of 495,295 live births in 2022, amounting to a decrease of 6.5% compared to 2021. From 2022 to 2023, the total number of births fell by seven percent, reflecting a trend that has persisted for almost two decades.

The declining birth rate can be attributed to several factors, primarily a global decrease in fertility rates. The average number of children born per mother has plummeted from 2.42 in 2008 to a current rate of 1.36, which denotes a striking decline of 43% over the span of 15 years. Historical comparisons show that women typically bore around seven children prior to the French Revolution; this figure has gradually decreased since then in developed countries.

According to Dr. Rafael Rofman, a demographic scholar and researcher at CIPPEC, the latest birth figures underscore a continuous downward trend, particularly a seven percent reduction from 2022. He emphasized that while this trend is significant, it is not alarming and should be thoroughly analyzed to identify potential risks and opportunities for policy adjustments.

Argentina’s fertility statistics are not unique in a regional context, as they now resemble those of various Western European nations and Latin American countries. Rofman noted a particularly positive development within this data: the notable decline in births among adolescents, which dropped by 10 percent in 2023 and a cumulative 66 percent over the last decade, indicating that many of these pregnancies were unplanned.

Moreover, births among women with lower educational attainment have decreased by 67% since 2014, compared to just 28% for women with higher education levels. This trend suggests that more women will have the opportunity to complete their education and secure better employment, thereby contributing to overall human capital and economic growth.

However, this situation is compounded by another trend: an ageing population. The average age in Argentina is currently around 40, steadily increasing by nearly one year each decade. This demographic shift urges policymakers to consider reforms in the pension system to ensure its sustainability and fairness, requiring essential political consensus to create actionable strategies.

Dr. Rofman forecasted that while the population may initially continue to grow, it is projected to stabilize between 45 and 50 million over the next 50 years. He emphasized that alarmist perspectives regarding potential depopulation are misguided, asserting that population challenges must focus on enhancing workforce productivity rather than merely increasing numbers.

Proposals for sustaining population levels include enhancing parental leave, childcare options, and free quality education, alongside investment in human and physical capital and technological advancement. Rofman asserted that Argentina’s fundamental task is to improve productivity through investment and education.

Dolores Dimier De Vicente from Universidad Austral noted that the decline in birth rates is a global phenomenon reflected in UN data, with Argentina and Chile leading in the lowest fertility rates in Latin America. This trend has accelerated significantly over the past decade, highlighting the need for further research to guide state policies effectively.

Despite these trends, researchers underscore the importance of addressing the age at which women become mothers, as more women are choosing to delay motherhood, thereby contributing to lower birth rates. Notably, data does not support the claim that the recent legalization of abortion directly influenced the decline in natality.

Looking ahead, researchers project that the trend of falling birth rates will likely continue until 2050, suggesting that it is crucial to leverage the current demographic bonus. However, they express concerns that Argentina is not yet prepared for an ageing society, cautioning that without proper planning, this demographic bonus could turn into a debt.

Preparations must encompass multiple sectors, including education and healthcare, to ensure quality of life for the ageing population. Public policies need to evolve to accommodate the requirements of an ageing society and enhance the overall socio-economic landscape.

In summary, Argentina is witnessing a significant decline in birth rates, reflective of a global trend, with implications for policy and societal structure. While the decrease may present challenges such as an ageing population, it also offers opportunities for enhancing women’s education and workforce productivity. Policymakers must proactively adjust to these demographic changes, ensuring sustainable growth and quality of life for future generations.

Original Source: www.batimes.com.ar