Assessment of Eritrea-Ethiopia Relations: High Likelihood of Conflict

General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, has indicated a high likelihood of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia following the breakdown of their relationship. He highlighted motivations including control over the port of Assab and regime change in Eritrea. Jobe speculated on potential intervention from external powers and reflected on past military decisions that have contributed to rising tensions.

In recent times, predictions regarding a potential conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia have been voiced by numerous politicians and military leaders, particularly following the breakdown of the previously cordial relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This deterioration occurred in under three years, although the specific reasons remain ambiguous to the public.

General Abebe Teklehaymanot, also known as Jobe, former commander of the Ethiopian Defense Force, has emphasized the likelihood of war in an interview. He indicated that both countries appear to be engaging in military preparations and have exchanged accusations of war-mongering. Jobe stated, “The two countries are likely heading to war,” reinforcing the seriousness of the situation.

Jobe pointed out that predicting the outcome of any possible armed conflict would be difficult; however, identifying the goals of such a war may elucidate its potential repercussions. He presented two main motivations for a possible conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The first reason could involve aspirations to control the port of Assab, which lies merely sixty kilometers from Ethiopia’s northeastern border, an asset Ethiopia lost access to due to past political decisions.

The second motivation mentioned by Jobe relates to the desire for regime change, specifically targeting the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), led by Afwerki. Many politically active Eritreans have historically believed that the United States has supported such an agenda. However, this perception shifted under the Trump administration, with its policies remaining to be fully assessed.

Speculative involvement from other state actors such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States has also been discussed, each with their respective strategic interests in the outcome of the conflict. Reflecting on the past, Jobe lamented the missed opportunity to neutralize Shabia during the 1998–2000 conflict, asserting, “We had the military capacity to do so.”

Internal disagreements during that war, particularly within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led government, showed a divide over how to engage with Eritrea, leading to the purging of dissenting voices. Jobe criticized the decision that allowed Eritrea to rebuild its military power after the war concluded in 2000, which paved the way for a prolonged period characterized as “no peace, no war.”

The normalization of relations in 2018 was an initial step toward easing tensions, yet the subsequent failure of these efforts has led to renewed hostility. Jobe cautioned that should conflict reignite between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Tigray may emerge as a primary battleground, echoing concerns voiced by current TPLF leaders.

In conclusion, the heightened tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, as articulated by General Jobe, point towards a potential conflict fueled by historical grievances and strategic motivations. The shift from a previously warm relationship to military mobilization emphasizes the fragility of peace in the region. The involvement of external powers and the historical context of past conflicts further complicate the situation, suggesting that vigilant observation and diplomatic efforts remain crucial in averting war.

Original Source: borkena.com