Concerns Over Shi’itization of Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah Influence

The Alma Research and Education Center’s report highlights growing Shi’itization within the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and its collaboration with Hezbollah, undermining its capacity to enforce ceasefires with Israel. President Aoun seeks to portray the LAF as a counterweight to Hezbollah while requesting aid from Saudi Arabia, though experts express skepticism regarding his assertions. The report warns of a potential Shiite majority in the LAF and emphasizes the need for Lebanon to isolate Hezbollah and protect national security.

A recent report published by the Alma Research and Education Center raises serious concerns regarding the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon, noting a troubling trend towards increased Shi’itization and collaboration with Hezbollah. Such developments potentially undermine the LAF’s ability to uphold the ceasefire agreement with Israel. Despite Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s assertions that only the state should be responsible for national security, evidence suggests that Hezbollah continues to exert considerable influence.

President Aoun has sought to reassure the international community, striving to portray a unified national front against Hezbollah while simultaneously advocating for renewed military aid from Saudi Arabia. His goal is to offset the power of Hezbollah, which has long dominated Lebanon as Iran’s ally. However, experts express skepticism about his claims, suggesting they lack grounding in the prevailing realities on the ground.

Tal Beeri, from the Alma Center, remarks that Aoun’s rhetoric aligns with Western expectations, yet the LAF faces substantial challenges in executing its duties due to internal dynamics. The report indicates that shifts in demographic trends and the suspension of mandatory conscription have fostered an LAF increasingly aligned with Shiite interests, further diminishing the representation of other communities, particularly Christians.

The report warns of a potential Shiite majority within the LAF, with many Shiite officers reportedly cooperating with Hezbollah and enabling its actions that contravene international agreements. Notably, during the ceasefire agreement’s recent expiration, the LAF failed to prevent civilian incursions into IDF areas, raising concerns about its operational effectiveness.

Moreover, familial connections between LAF personnel and Hezbollah operatives may lead Hezbollah to utilize the LAF as a tactical asset or a human shield, subsequently jeopardizing Western military support. If trends of Shi’itization continue unchecked, the LAF might transition further from a national army to a faction aligned with Hezbollah.

Over the past two decades, the United States has provided the LAF with approximately $3 billion in aid, some of which has unfortunately leaked to Hezbollah. The authors of the report assert that the expectations held by Western nations regarding the LAF’s role as a counterweight to Hezbollah are fundamentally misguided, failing to acknowledge the existing cooperation between the two entities.

In light of these revelations, the report suggests that Lebanon must take proactive measures to isolate Hezbollah domestically and curb the ongoing demographic shifts that threaten national stability. Specifically, the reassignment of Shiite officers out of southern Lebanon is recommended to enhance the LAF’s operational integrity in the face of persistent threats from Hezbollah.

Beeri stresses that the functionality of the ceasefire agreement relies heavily on the LAF’s effectiveness, which has been compromised by the current situation. He emphasizes that Israel’s military responses are significant but will only provide temporary relief, highlighting the broader challenge of preventing Hezbollah’s resurgence over time.

The report by the Alma Center underscores the growing Shi’itization of the LAF and its concerning collaboration with Hezbollah. Despite President Aoun’s assertions of state sovereignty over security matters, the reality reflects significant Hezbollah influence. To address these challenges, Lebanon must take decisive actions to reestablish a national army distinct from sectarian divisions and mitigate the risks posed by Hezbollah’s entrenchment. The implications of this situation extend beyond Lebanon, affecting regional stability and the efficacy of international military support.

Original Source: www.jewishpress.com