ECOWAS’s Struggle for Influence Amid Guinea-Bissau’s Political Crisis

President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau has created significant political turmoil by dissolving parliament and refusing to announce new elections. Despite claiming he would not seek a second term, he reversed his decision, indicating instability. An ECOWAS delegation aimed to mediate the crisis but was expelled, raising questions about the organization’s influence. Emabalo’s actions have left the country in political chaos and highlight ECOWAS’s challenges in maintaining regional governance.

In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, initiating a five-year term aimed at reelection in 2025. Nonetheless, by December 2023, he faced significant backlash for dissolving parliament without announcing new elections, with opposition parties condemning the move as an unconstitutional effort to consolidate power. This prompted threats of mass protests and civil disobedience from opposition leaders unless a clear election date is established.

The conflict extends to differing interpretations regarding the tenure of President Embaló’s term. The opposition asserts that his mandate will end on February 27, 2025, per the constitutional provision, whereas the Supreme Court controversially extended it to September 4, 2025. This extension has been firmly rejected by opposition members, heightening tensions in the political landscape.

Amidst the uncertainty, President Embaló indicated in September 2024 that he would not seek re-election. However, he later backtracked, suggesting a reconsideration influenced by discussions with his family, resulting in an unpredictable political environment in Guinea-Bissau.

On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation was dispatched to address the escalating crisis. Instead of facilitating dialogue, the mission concluded abruptly when President Embaló reportedly expelled the team, stating that they should refrain from interfering in Guinea-Bissau’s internal matters, which was corroborated by diplomatic sources.

Following this incident, President Embaló revealed to French President Emmanuel Macron his intention to seek a second term in the upcoming elections, underscoring his preference for French involvement over that of the ECOWAS organization. Consequently, this reflects a possible shift in allegiance towards France, distancing himself from Guinea-Bissau’s colonial ties with Portugal.

ECOWAS’s subsequent silence raises crucial questions about its efficacy in addressing Embaló’s actions and restoring order in Guinea-Bissau. The lack of decisive intervention starkly contrasts with ECOWAS’s proactive stance during previous political crises in the region, raising concerns regarding future interventions and the definitions of internal affairs.

President Embaló’s troubling response to this crisis has led Guinea-Bissau into a state of political chaos, jeopardizing the country’s stability and isolating him amid potential military upheaval. A pressing question remains regarding whether he has secured French protection or if he will rely solely on his personal rapport with President Macron as a shield against impending challenges.

The political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau, marked by President Embaló’s controversial decisions, exemplifies the challenges ECOWAS faces in asserting its influence and authority. The divergence between ECOWAS’s historical interventions and its current inaction highlights a potentially damaging precedent for regional stability. As President Embaló navigates his political future, the implications for Guinea-Bissau’s governance and for ECOWAS’s credibility in the West African realm are profound.

Original Source: thepoint.gm