ECOWAS’s Challenge in Addressing Guinea-Bissau’s Political Impasse

Guinea-Bissau faces a political crisis with President Embaló dissolving parliament amid calls for new elections. Disputes over the term’s end and tensions with ECOWAS escalate. Following diplomatic failures, President Embaló confirmed plans to seek a second term, signaling a shift in allegiance towards France over regional support. The crisis emphasizes the ongoing challenges for ECOWAS in ensuring stability and authority in West Africa.

In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, securing a five-year mandate for re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved parliament without announcing new elections, prompting opposition accusations of power retention that undermines constitutional frameworks. Opposition leaders have consequently threatened mass protests if an election date remains unannounced, escalating tensions further.

Additionally, a significant dispute arose regarding the duration of Embaló’s term. While the opposition asserts that his mandate concludes on February 27, 2025, consistent with constitutional stipulations, the Supreme Court extended it to September 4, 2025. This extension has faced vehement opposition, adding to the current political uncertainty.

In September 2024, President Embaló stated he would not seek a second term in upcoming elections but later suggested he might reconsider. The political climate in Guinea-Bissau remains volatile, with potentially serious repercussions for the future.

On March 3, 2025, a high-ranking ECOWAS delegation aimed to mediate the political deadlock but was expelled by Embaló, who insisted they refrain from interfering in Guinea-Bissau’s internal matters. Sources revealed that the hostility shown to ECOWAS mediators significantly curtailed their mission, leaving diplomatic endeavors in disarray.

After this diplomatic rebuff, President Embaló confirmed his intention to pursue a second term in the forthcoming elections, further indicating his disregard for ECOWAS intervention. His choices appear to align more favorably with French influence as opposed to that of Portugal, Guinea-Bissau’s former colonial ruler.

ECOWAS’s silence in the face of Embaló’s actions raises critical questions regarding their authority and effectiveness in the region. The lack of decisive action contrasts starkly with their previous interventions in The Gambia and Niger, leading to concerns about the organization’s future effectiveness in crisis resolution.

Embaló’s responses to the current crisis exhibit a troubling lack of leadership, driving the nation deeper into political chaos, which could lead to isolation in the event of a military coup. The potential for external support from France has also been called into question, especially regarding its reliability.

The necessity for immediate and decisive action in Guinea-Bissau is clear. Engaging diplomatic leaders with a credible track record, such as Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, might prove beneficial if the situation is to be mitigated effectively. The urgency of intervention cannot be overstated in the face of Guinea-Bissau’s destabilizing political landscape.

In summary, President Embaló’s actions have significantly destabilized Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape, showcasing a tension-filled struggle for power influenced by foreign relations. ECOWAS faces critical challenges in asserting its authority and engaging effectively in the nation’s crisis. The ability of regional bodies to intervene constructively and prevent further escalation will determine both Embaló’s political fate and the credibility of ECOWAS moving forward.

Original Source: thepoint.gm