Ethiopia-Somalia Relations: A New Chapter Amidst Regional Challenges

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Somalia marks a pivotal step in restoring relations following a year of tensions caused by Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland. As both nations seek to collaborate on security, infrastructure, and economic development, analysts highlight the implications for regional geopolitics, including the potential ramifications of the Asmara tripartite agreement involving Egypt and Eritrea. The evolving situation emphasizes Ethiopia’s need to strengthen its role as a regional stabilizer amidst changing alliances and ongoing challenges.

This week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu to engage with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This meeting follows Mohamud’s earlier visit to Addis Ababa and aims to solidify the recently formalized relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, ending a year-long tension triggered by Ethiopia’s agreement with breakaway Somaliland.

During their discussions, PM Abiy highlighted the importance of collaboration in various sectors, stressing that integration is vital for achieving the region’s potential amidst its challenges. He emphasized that, while the Horn of Africa boasts rich resources, it must work collectively toward development and prosperity.

The Prime Minister’s visit is seen as a significant step towards implementing the Ankara Declaration, which sought to mend relations that had deteriorated since January 2024. Analysts suggest that Somaliland has become less of a focus in this renewal of ties as its new leadership appears uninterested in the previous agreements.

Somalia has also ratified Ethiopia’s participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), effectively sidelining plans to substitute Ethiopian troops for Egyptians. Such developments signal a dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region, following a time when alliances had formed between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt.

Constantinos Berhutesfa, an expert on regional politics, noted the fluid nature of alliances in the Horn of Africa, explaining that relations among governments can quickly change from friendly to antagonistic. He sees the reestablishment of ties between Ethiopia and Somalia as a response to the uncertain position of Somaliland regarding its prior agreements.

While acknowledging the positive implications of improved Ethiopian-Somali relations, Constantinos cautioned about the Asmara axis formed by Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. Their tripartite military agreement raises questions regarding the future stability of Somalia and the potential repercussions of Ethiopian normalization with Mogadishu.

Constantinos underscored the importance of regional stakeholders, such as Egypt and Eritrea, in determining the fate of Somalia, especially against the backdrop of the recent US military operations targeting Al-Shabaab. He argues that Ethiopia’s relationship with Somalia needs to be approached with caution, considering external influences and historical tensions.

The situation is further complicated by a recent commentary from former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome, which criticized Eritrea’s role in regional instability. With renewed hostilities and calls for a re-evaluation of the Ethiopian-Eritrean relationship, concerns over potential military confrontations loom, though analysts believe neither country is willing to engage in warfare.

Experts are advocating for Ethiopia to prioritize internal stability and diplomatic outreach to restore its influence as a regional power. The nation’s historical significance as the seat of the African Union necessitates that it leads the charge in addressing regional conflicts.

Constantinos called for a comprehensive peace and security summit to engage regional actors and address crises systematically. Collaborating with bodies such as the African Union and civil societies, he argues that Ethiopia can reshape its international image and prepare for effective regional integration.

Overall, the evolving dynamics in the Horn of Africa require Ethiopia to navigate complex relationships to foster stability and leadership within the region, ensuring its strategic interests and legacy of peacekeeping are upheld.

In conclusion, the recent diplomatic engagement between Ethiopia and Somalia underscores a significant shift toward regional collaboration aimed at reducing tensions. While the normalization holds promise for stability, challenges related to external influences and historical rivalries persist. Ethiopia’s role as a stabilizing force in the Horn of Africa remains critical, emphasizing the necessity for strategic diplomacy and regional dialogue to secure lasting peace and unity in the area.

Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com