China Fails to Achieve Key Climate Goal in 2024

China did not meet a key climate target in 2024, with carbon intensity reduction at 3.4% instead of the 3.9% goal. Emissions slightly rose, raising concerns about the country’s ability to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement. Analysts warn that without significant reforms in the energy sector, reaching future carbon reduction targets by 2030 may be extremely difficult.

China has struggled to meet a crucial climate target in 2024, with official data indicating a slight rise in emissions despite significant additions in renewable energy. The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported a 3.4% decrease in carbon intensity, falling short of the official 3.9% goal. This setback places the nation behind in its objective to achieve an 18% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 to 2025 under the Paris Agreement.

While carbon emissions have increased modestly compared to the previous year, analysts are cautiously optimistic, pondering whether China may have attained its peak emissions prior to the 2030 target. However, experts stress that reaching China’s Paris target to reduce carbon intensity by 65% of 2005 levels by 2030 will require significant progress, especially since 22% reduction must occur between 2026 and 2030.

Despite being the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases, China is also a leader in renewable energy initiatives. The country aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Commentary from analysts suggests that rapid growth in the industrial sector is counteracting efforts to meet these climate goals.

Energy consumption has increased by 4.3% from 2023, with coal still providing over 50% of the country’s energy needs. Nonetheless, the growth of renewable energy is promising, and experts believe that as demand for electricity is increasingly met through renewables, absolute coal usage will begin to decline.

China is poised to release its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, which will likely feature updated emissions and energy goals. Furthermore, the country is expected to submit revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, though it, like many others, has missed the initial deadline for submissions.

In conclusion, China faces challenges in achieving its climate targets as emissions have risen slightly and are below the expected reduction goals. The heavy reliance on coal amid industrial growth poses significant hurdles, despite advancements in renewable energy. Experts remain concerned about the feasibility of meeting stringent future commitments under the Paris Agreement without substantial reforms to the energy sector. The upcoming Five-Year Plan and NDC submissions may provide clearer guidance on China’s path forward in addressing climate change.

Original Source: www.straitstimes.com