China Misses Key Climate Target for 2024 Amid Rising Emissions

China failed to meet a significant climate target in 2024, as its carbon intensity reduction fell short of goals. Despite notable growth in renewable energy, emissions slightly increased, indicating challenges in fulfilling Paris agreement commitments. Experts caution that achieving future targets will require substantial reductions in emissions intensity as the country navigates rapid industrial growth and energy demands.

Official data indicates that China did not meet its significant climate target in 2024, as emissions slightly increased in the world’s second-largest economy. Despite record expansions in renewable energy, coal continues to dominate energy sources, causing analysts to express concern about China’s commitment to its obligations under the Paris climate agreement. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that carbon intensity improved by only 3.4%, failing to reach the official target of 3.9%, indicating a shortfall in the country’s planned 18% reduction from 2020 to 2025.

Carbon emissions have seen a minimal increase compared to prior years, leading to speculation that China may have already peaked in its emissions ahead of its 2030 target. Yet, experts warn that the path to achieving a pledged 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 is fraught with challenges. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air remarked, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”

While China remains the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, it is also a leader in renewable energy advancements, aiming to peak emissions by 2030 and attain net-zero by 2060. However, the anticipated decline in emissions for 2024 did not materialize as industrial growth demanded energy that surpassed the rapid-upscale of renewable energy infrastructure. Muyi Yang from Ember noted that rapid industrial expansion has caused energy demand to surge, thus hindering progress toward the climate goals.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.3% increase in total energy consumption from 2023, with coal providing over half of China’s energy supply despite significant gains in renewable sources. Analysts indicate the path towards meeting future energy demands through renewables is approaching, which would trigger a decline in coal power usage. Mr. Yang stated, “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources.”

Beijing is expected to release details regarding its 15th Five-Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030, which will outline revised emissions and energy goals later this year. Additionally, China was also scheduled to submit updated emissions targets referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement; however, this deadline was missed. Yet, United Nations officials have indicated that the majority of NDC submissions are anticipated this year.

China’s inability to meet key climate targets showcases significant challenges ahead in fulfilling its commitments under the Paris agreement. The rise in emissions and reliance on coal, despite advancements in renewable energy, presents a complex scenario for China’s energy sector. Continued industrial growth is impacting climate progress while the upcoming Five-Year Plan holds potential for revised goals. The future effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen as China navigates its path toward sustainability.

Original Source: www.france24.com