Navigating Domestic Tensions Following the Ceasefire in Lebanon

A ceasefire concluded an intense conflict between Hizbollah and Israel, yet political tensions remain in Lebanon. The return of displaced persons has not resolved underlying hostilities, and discussions around disarming Hizbollah are resurfacing. Lebanon’s leadership, under President Aoun, is tasked with navigating these complexities to secure peace and stability while managing the implications of external influences on domestic affairs.

In November 2024, a ceasefire concluded fourteen months of hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel, which ensued after Hamas’s attacks on Israel from Gaza on October 7. Despite the cessation of fire, tensions remain prevalent in Lebanon. Over the course of the conflict, Hizbollah suffered significant losses, strengthening its opponents within Lebanon’s political landscape. As discussions around disarming Hizbollah recommence, given the ceasefire’s stipulations, Lebanon’s political leaders are urged to pursue disarmament through negotiation rather than confrontation.

Although around one million displaced Lebanese returned home post-war, the potential for rising tensions persists if the fragile ceasefire collapses. The ceasefire mandated the Lebanese army to ensure that Hizbollah ceases military operations. However, accusations of violations by both parties have surfaced, and Israel’s delayed withdrawal from southern Lebanon has led to violent encounters with returning civilians, further complicating the peace process.

The war sparked crucial debates regarding Hizbollah’s role in post-conflict Lebanon. Hizbollah claims victory, asserting that Israel’s acceptance of a ceasefire agreement reflects its inability to defeat them. Conversely, Hizbollah’s detractors highlight the perilous conflict they orchestrated, pushing for their disarmament and adherence to the accord, thus reigniting a divided political narrative among Lebanese leaders.

Lebanon’s new leadership under President Joseph Aoun faces the challenge of mitigating tensions while implementing necessary reforms outlined in the ceasefire agreement. Aoun has promised to establish the state’s monopoly on arms, but Hizbollah’s historic political and military influence complicates this effort. While the possibility of armed confrontation is deemed unlikely, the current political climate offers an opportunity to reconsider Hizbollah’s armament status.

Hizbollah’s potential refusal to comply with disarmament demands poses risks for internal stability, as the group has previously resorted to protests and violent actions when feeling politically cornered. Despite Hizbollah’s waning popularity due to the war’s impact on Shiites, any perceived marginalization could bolster support for the group, sparking further sectarian strife.

As Lebanon’s political landscape evolves, the focus must remain on solidifying the ceasefire while cautiously addressing disarmament discussions. It remains uncertain how external actors, particularly the United States, will navigate the complex landscape following shifts in foreign policy. Supporting the Lebanese army and promoting state institutions will be vital to ensure lasting security and stability.

Ultimately, Lebanon’s leadership should strive to exploit post-war dynamics to explore potential negotiations between political factions. Engaging Hizbollah in discussions regarding its disarmament without threatening its existence could pave a slow but potentially fruitful path toward sustainable peace and balancing aid efforts with humanitarian considerations for the Lebanese people.

The tense aftermath of the war in Lebanon underscores the need for cautious political maneuvering and negotiation regarding Hizbollah’s disarmament. While the ceasefire has created a fragile peace, the potential for renewed conflict persists if political divisions are not addressed. Lebanon’s leadership must focus on consolidating the ceasefire, adopting reforms, and securing international support to foster a stable and peaceful future. Strategies should prioritize the establishment of state authority while avoiding unnecessary confrontation with Hizbollah, recognizing the importance of unity within diverse political factions.

Original Source: reliefweb.int