The Status of the Civil War in Sudan

The civil war in Sudan has intensified as the SAF launches an offensive against the RSF, resulting in over 20,000 deaths and nearly 11 million internally displaced persons. Numerous ceasefire efforts have failed, with both factions unwilling to negotiate. The conflict has caused significant humanitarian crises, has ethnic dimensions, and involves external military support, complicating international mediation efforts.

The ongoing civil war in Sudan, now in its 18th month, has escalated following a significant offensive by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) aimed at the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in key urban areas like Khartoum and Bahri. The international community has grown increasingly concerned about the humanitarian crisis resulting from this conflict, with the United Nations reporting over 20,000 fatalities and nearly 11 million internally displaced persons due to the violence. Despite multiple peace initiatives led by global powers, including attempts by the United States, no viable ceasefire has been established, and the optimism for peace remains bleak as both factions appear unyielding in their quest for control. The civil war’s origins lie in a power struggle between the SAF, commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by General Hamdan Dagalo. Although the conflict initially ignited in Khartoum, it has since infiltrated numerous regions across Sudan, including areas in Darfur and Kordofan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation. Reports continue to surface regarding war crimes, including acts of sexual violence and extrajudicial killings. The situation escalated further when famine was declared in the Zamzam camp, an indicator of the widespread food insecurity affecting over half of the population. Multiple factors contribute to the war’s continuation, including the entrenched positions of both armed groups, the complex involvement of ethnic militias, and substantial external military support, which fuels the conflict. The SAF regards itself as the legitimate government in spite of its coup-driven ascendance to power, while the RSF capitalizes on its territorial advancements. Furthermore, the arms embargo, originally instated due to the 2004 Darfur crisis, has failed to impede the flow of weaponry to both sides, allowing for ongoing military engagements. Previous ceasefire negotiations, particularly those facilitated by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, culminated in failure as both parties displayed reluctance to engage meaningfully in diplomacy. The absence of international media attention to the war, coupled with restrictions on humanitarian access, further complicates efforts toward resolution. Regional ramifications are severe, with millions fleeing to neighboring countries, leading to heightened ethnic tensions and violence along the borders of South Sudan and Ethiopia. Amidst the complexity of the conflict, there is a growing apprehension that prolonged military rivalries may result in Sudan fracturing into regions akin to the situation in Libya. With both the SAF and RSF unwilling to compromise, and the international community grappling with prioritizing conflicts elsewhere, the plight of the Sudanese people may continue to deteriorate.

The civil war in Sudan, which erupted from a rivalry between the SAF and RSF, has transformed from a localized military conflict into a widespread humanitarian crisis affecting various regional ethnic groups. The war’s escalation and the consequent humanitarian fallout have drawn attention from international organizations, yet attempts to broker peace have repeatedly floundered. As the conflict persists, external influences and internal dynamics complicate the possibility of a swift resolution.

In summary, the civil war in Sudan embodies a tragic saga of unresolved power struggles, humanitarian despair, and failed peace efforts. The ongoing conflict undermines regional stability and poses significant challenges to global diplomatic interventions. With the military leadership firmly entrenched and external support complicating the landscape, the likelihood of a peaceful resolution appears increasingly distant. The urgent need for a comprehensive international approach, acknowledging the myriad complexities of the war, is imperative for any hope of future stability in Sudan.

Original Source: www.thehindu.com