Hezbollah’s Path Forward After Nasrallah’s Death: An Analysis

Following Hassan Nasrallah’s death, Iranian officials emphasized support for Hezbollah, which faces diminished military capabilities and funding challenges. The group aims to rebuild while navigating a complex regional landscape, taking a cautious approach towards opportunities presented by political changes and external pressures in Lebanon and Syria.

In response to the recent death of Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian officials have visited Lebanon, signaling Iran’s ongoing expectations for Hezbollah’s role. During their trip, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Sheikh Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah, emphasizing Iran’s support despite recent setbacks for the group following intense conflict with Israel.

The funeral on February 23 for Nasrallah was anticipated as a display of Hezbollah’s strength, drawing an estimated 200,000 attendees, including supporters from various pro-Iranian factions. Qassem delivered a pre-recorded speech, reaffirming Hezbollah’s commitment to resistance against Israel, despite recent losses in leadership and militaristic capacity.

Hezbollah’s recent challenges include diminished funding due to conflict losses, along with threats to its leadership by Israel. Although it maintains significant control over Lebanon’s security landscape, the group faces a pressing necessity to rebuild its military capabilities, including potentially reconstructing its arsenal after significant losses to Israeli forces.

Historically, Hezbollah has shown resilience, previously rebuilding its military strength after the 2006 conflict. Currently estimated to possess around 10,000 to 20,000 projectiles, they face difficulties in establishing new smuggling routes post-Assad regime. This situation allows them to potentially infiltrate southern Syria amidst a security vacuum.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding the developments in Lebanon’s political landscape, particularly in light of Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic engagements with Iran. This strategic patience may enable Hezbollah to assess and capitalize on any emerging opportunities in the regional power structure.

Hezbollah is at a critical juncture following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, facing significant challenges in rebuilding its military capabilities and securing funding amid pressure from Israel. With historical resilience, the group may seek to re-establish its arsenal and influence in both Lebanon and southern Syria while waiting to gauge political developments within the region. Its future actions will hinge on maintaining its operational strength and leveraging regional dynamics to regain dominance.

Original Source: www.jpost.com