Tropical Cyclone Chido Causes Catastrophic Damage in Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido impacted Mayotte on December 14, 2023, with unprecedented wind speeds over 200 km/h, resulting in catastrophic damage and significant loss of life. The cyclone also affected Mozambique and Malawi following its landfall. Météo-France emphasized the rarity of such storms and the uncertain role of climate change in its intensity, prompting a call for enhanced preparedness for future tropical cyclones.

On December 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, an island in the Indian Ocean, with wind speeds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching over 225 kilometers per hour. This cyclone marked the most intense storm the island had experienced in at least 90 years, according to Météo-France. Accompanied by heavy rainfall of 176 millimeters in just 12 hours and dangerous sea conditions with wave heights surpassing five meters, Chido caused significant devastation, even damaging Météo-France’s observation facilities.

In response to the catastrophe, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national day of mourning. As early reports indicated potential loss of life in the hundreds, a comprehensive emergency response and relief operation commenced. Despite timely warnings issued more than 50 hours prior, the storm’s impact was severe, particularly considering Mayotte’s vulnerability to such powerful cyclones and the prevalence of informal housing structures in the area.

The cyclone’s trajectory was atypical, as it skirted Madagascar, which could have otherwise diminished its strength. It made landfall in Mozambique on December 15, 2023, bringing heavy rainfall to both Mozambique and Malawi. Météo-France noted that while the cyclone’s rare occurrence and direct impact on Mayotte were clear, attributing its characteristics to climate change remained uncertain.

The organization remarked, “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte. This is an extremely rare event not seen for 90 years. Our current state of knowledge does not allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.” The seasonal forecast produced by Météo-France on October 31 accurately predicted earlier cyclone activity in the region, with anticipated storms occurring before the expected start of the cyclone season in January.

As the Southwest Indian Ocean approaches the 2024-2025 cyclone season, forecasts indicate a likelihood of near to above-normal tropical cyclone activity, with estimates suggesting the formation of nine to thirteen systems, including four to seven that may develop into tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclone Chido exemplifies the increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events affecting islands with less resilience to such storms. Mayotte, an island with vulnerable housing structures, faced unprecedented challenges as Chido passed directly over the region. With climate change potentially influencing the intensity of tropical cyclones, understanding the specific impacts remains a focal point for meteorological agencies. The role of Météo-France as a specialized center for tropical cyclone forecasts highlights the importance of timely alerts in mitigating loss of life and property damage.

In summary, Tropical Cyclone Chido’s unprecedented impact on Mayotte serves as a poignant reminder of the vulnerabilities faced by small islands in the face of severe weather disturbances. Despite advance warnings from Météo-France, the island’s preparedness for such a storm was insufficient. As meteorological predictions suggest increased cyclone activity in the upcoming seasons, the need for improved resilience and effective response strategies becomes imperative.

Original Source: wmo.int