The Impact of Assad’s Overthrow on Hezbollah’s Power Dynamics

The overthrow of Bashar Assad has severely weakened Hezbollah, disrupting its supply lines and diminishing its power. Analysts predict significant consequences for Lebanon, Iran, and Israel as Hezbollah struggles to maintain its political and military influence amid growing domestic discontent.

A significantly weakened Hezbollah is no longer positioned to support former Syrian President Bashar Assad, who was recently overthrown amidst a swift insurgency. The absence of Assad, a staunch ally, has exacerbated the challenges faced by Hezbollah, which suffered considerable losses during its prolonged conflict with Israel. The removal of Assad has disrupted essential supply routes for arms smuggling, critically undermining Hezbollah’s operational capabilities.

Despite the adversity, Hezbollah officials remain resolute. Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker affiliated with the group, remarked, “What is happening in Syria is a major, dangerous and new change, and to know why this happened needs evaluation. Whatever is happening in Syria, despite its dangers, will not weaken us.”

The repercussions of Hezbollah’s diminished power extend beyond its own borders, significantly affecting Lebanon’s political landscape and Iran’s influence in the region. Analysts suggest that Israel may perceive this development as an opportunity, recognizing Hezbollah’s vulnerability on the northern frontier as unprecedented in recent history. Historically, the Assad regime supported Hezbollah’s emergence and rise in strength, providing critical resources and a strategic base of operations for Iranian support.

As the insurgency progressed, many anticipated a robust defense from Hezbollah, especially given a similar past in 2013 when the group successfully defended Damascus. However, the organization is currently weakened, with substantial losses among its leadership, including key figures such as Hassan Nasrallah, resulting from Israeli airstrikes. The ongoing conflict and the withdrawal of crucial allies like Russia and Iran contributed to the swift collapse of Assad’s regime.

The changing dynamics have afforded the Lebanese army an opportunity to reassert authority, which it had previously ceded, particularly in southern territories. Following a U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, there are rising calls within Lebanon advocating for the disarmament of the group. Samir Geagea, leading the Lebanese Forces Party, stated, “To Hezbollah, it’s game over. Sit with the Lebanese military to end your status as an armed group, and transform yourselves into a political party.”

Moreover, Hezbollah encounters growing domestic discontent, as critics accuse the group of straying from its stated mission. The repercussions of last year’s hostilities, which resulted in nearly 4,000 casualties and widespread devastation, have stoked resentment towards the group.

As Hezbollah confronts a new reality post-Assad, many traditional supporters in Lebanon are distancing themselves. Gebran Bassil, representing the Free Patriotic Movement, asserted that the disruption of Hezbollah’s weapons pipeline from Iran could facilitate Lebanon’s withdrawal from broader regional disputes. Experts predict that Hezbollah’s ambitions may have to be restricted, given Iran’s reduced control over vital routes to supply the group.

Israel, aiming to weaken Iran’s regional network, appears cautious concerning the extremist elements among those who contributed to Assad’s downfall. In response to these developments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted that the overthrow of Assad represented a significant turning point in the regional balance of power.

The article discusses the ramifications of the Syrian civil war and the subsequent overthrow of Bashar Assad on Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based militant group that has historically aligned with Assad’s regime. It emphasizes Hezbollah’s significant decline in operational capacity following Assad’s removal, as well as the broader implications for Lebanon, Iran, and Israel. The text reiterates the importance of the Syria-Iran connection for Hezbollah’s logistics and military support, noting the geopolitical shifts that accompany Assad’s fall.

In summary, the removal of Bashar Assad has rendered Hezbollah increasingly vulnerable, stripping it of critical support and supply routes. This reconfiguration of power will likely lead to profound consequences for Lebanon’s political dynamics and for Iran’s influence in the region. Additionally, the altered landscape has provided Israel with newfound strategic advantages in countering Hezbollah’s capabilities and ambitions.

Original Source: abcnews.go.com