The Implications of Assad’s Regime Vulnerability for Israel

The resurgence of the Syrian civil war has raised critical questions for Israel regarding its preferred adversaries along its northern border: Iranian-backed extremists or Turkish-supported Sunni jihadists. The renewed conflict, launched by rebel offensives against Aleppo, follows the consequences of Hamas’s October 7 attack, reshaping the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. Each actor—Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia—has distinct interests influencing their strategies within this complex environment.

The resurgence of the Syrian civil war has prompted a reassessment among Israelis regarding their stance toward their northern neighbor. It raises the critical question: which faction would Israel prefer to face on its border, Iranian-backed Shia extremists or Turkish-supported Sunni groups? Given that there is no favorable scenario, Israel’s approach will be one of cautious observation, as long as its immediate security is not compromised. As articulated by former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir during the Iran-Iraq war, Israel may hope for a stalemate between adversaries.

On November 27, an alliance of Sunni jihadists, including those linked to al-Qaeda (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), launched an offensive against Aleppo. This unexpected escalation should not have been entirely unforeseen, as the broader ramifications of Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel on October 7 were anticipated to reverberate throughout the region. The repercussions of the October 7 events included Hezbollah’s engagement against Israel, which displaced numerous Israelis and incited Operation Northern Arrows, aimed at returning them home while significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities and revealing Iran’s vulnerabilities.

As the rebels moved against Aleppo, they recognized a unique opportunity presented by the distractions of Assad’s key allies: Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran, which are currently occupied or weakened. The timing of this offensive coincided with the announcement of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. The ramifications of Hamas’s assault have reshaped dynamics across the Middle East in unpredictable ways, signaling the necessity for careful observation of the evolving Syrian landscape.

Israel, while a significant actor in this theater, prefers to maintain a passive role in the fighting, focusing instead on diminishing Iranian influence. Israel benefits from a diminished Assad regime that cannot pose a traditional military threat for the foreseeable future. However, the nation also prefers to see Assad remain in power to avoid potential chaos that could arise from his downfall. Such unpredictability associated with a new regime could instigate heightened instability along Israel’s borders.

Turkey plays a pivotal role in facilitating the rebels’ offensive and has pledged to resettle millions of Syrian refugees in northern Syria, leveraging the current conflict to exert pressure on Assad. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stance is designed to diminish the Kurdish threat and strengthen Turkey’s foothold in the region. Iran, conversely, is positioned as a major loser amid the advancing rebels, as a fallen Assad would sever its critical supply line to Hezbollah. Despite challenges, Iran’s strategies to retain influence in Syria remain steadfast, albeit complicated by its diminishing resources.

Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is largely motivated by geopolitical interests, including the desire to maintain its military presence and counter US influence in the region. The loss of Assad would undermine Russia’s strategic foothold, evidenced by its continued military efforts to support Assad’s regime amid the advancing rebels. This intervention illustrates the Kremlin’s commitment to demonstrating reliability as an ally in the region.

The multifaceted dynamics of the Syrian civil war continue to evolve, highlighting the complexity of regional politics as various actors engage in a delicate balance of power.

The context of this analysis lies in the ongoing Syrian civil war and its implications for regional stability, particularly regarding Israeli security interests. Following a renewed offensive by Sunni jihadist factions on Aleppo, the geopolitical landscape has shifted. The aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel introduced a wave of unpredictability, extending the conflict’s ramifications beyond Gaza to neighboring countries. Understanding the positions of Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia is crucial in navigating the evolving situation in Syria and its ramifications for the region.

In summary, the shifting dynamics of the Syrian conflict pose significant implications for regional stakeholders, particularly Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia. Israel’s preference for a stable but weakened Assad reflects its strategic interests in preventing Iranian influence while avoiding potential chaos. Turkey’s intentions to resettle refugees highlight its paramount domestic concerns, while Iran’s efforts to maintain its regional foothold face increasing challenges amid diminished resources. Meanwhile, Russia’s ongoing intervention underscores its desire to preserve a strategic ally amid broader geopolitical interests.

Original Source: www.jpost.com