Climate Change Linked to One-Fifth of Global Dengue Cases, Study Reveals

A recent study indicates that climate change may account for almost one-fifth of current dengue cases worldwide, with potential increases of 40-60 percent in cases by 2050. The findings suggest a strong correlation between rising temperatures and dengue infections, emphasizing the health impacts of climate change. Researchers also noted that emission reductions could mitigate some future increases in dengue incidence.

A new study conducted by researchers from Stanford and Harvard Universities has concluded that climate change is responsible for almost 20 percent of the current global dengue cases. Additionally, projections suggest a potential increase in dengue incidence by 40 to 60 percent by the year 2050. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, the research emphasizes the significant correlation between rising temperatures and increased dengue infections. According to senior author Erin Mordecai, historical climate change has already led to an 18 percent rise in dengue cases in the studied regions, with some areas possibly experiencing increases of up to 200 percent by mid-century. The rising temperatures and humid conditions resulting from climate change have facilitated the spread of dengue, leading to reported outbreaks in previously unaffected regions, including parts of Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. In the Americas, nearly 12 million dengue cases were recorded in 2024, a significant rise from 4.6 million cases in 2023. The study highlighted that certain countries, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, face heightened risks as they enter the ideal temperature range for virus transmission. The findings also indicate that approximately 257 million people live in regions where climate change could potentially double dengue incidence over the next 25 years. Notably, the researchers acknowledged that the study may underestimate the actual impacts of climate change since it did not include areas lacking consistent infection tracking, such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Furthermore, the authors recommended that reducing carbon emissions could mitigate the disease’s spread, suggesting that areas projected for a 60 percent increase in dengue may only see a 40 percent rise if emissions are sharply reduced. However, even with such reductions, several countries may still face climate-related increases in dengue cases.

The topic at hand addresses the critical intersection of climate change and public health, particularly concerning mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever. This includes understanding how environmental changes, especially temperature and humidity variations, impact disease patterns and transmission dynamics. The increasing incidences of dengue have raised alarms globally, particularly as outbreaks have been documented in new areas due to climate shifts. Researchers are striving to quantify these impacts and provide actionable insights into mitigation strategies.

The study conducted by Stanford and Harvard University researchers highlights the profound influence of climate change on the incidence of dengue fever, indicating that it accounts for nearly 20 percent of global cases today, with future increases expected. It demonstrates that substantial climate variations are likely to exacerbate the spread of dengue in various regions, underlining the urgent need for emissions reduction to mitigate future health crises associated with this vector-borne disease.

Original Source: www.theweek.in