Will Somalia Become a Proxy Battleground for Egypt and Ethiopia?

In light of increasing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, Somalia has emerged as a potential proxy battleground. Egypt has recently increased its military support to Somalia amid concerns over Ethiopia’s agreements with Somaliland, which Somalia sees as a threat to its sovereignty. Both nations have issued threats to one another, raising fears of escalating conflict in the region. However, experts suggest direct confrontation is unlikely due to the presence of external mediators and ongoing regional instability.

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have amplified significantly, leading to the potential for Somalia to transform into a proxy battleground between the two nations. Recent military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia has raised concerns, particularly following the delivery of military equipment, including artillery and anti-aircraft guns, from Egypt to Somalia. This marks the second delivery in recent weeks. The origins of this conflict trace back to Ethiopia’s arrangements with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, which signed a memorandum of understanding to lease coastal territory for military purposes in exchange for recognition of its independence. This action has been perceived by Somalia as an infringement on its sovereignty, prompting it to seek military and diplomatic support from Egypt. Ethiopia has responded by issuing threats against any military entrenchment by Egypt that undermines its interests in Somalia. Cairo, in turn, has declared its readiness to defend its military presence and Somali interests. The ongoing geopolitical shifts have produced alliances that could shape the future of the region. Somalia’s frail political landscape has been exacerbated by years of civil unrest and the presence of militant groups such as Al-Shabab, further complicating the ramifications of the Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict. Notably, Somali officials have indicated that the country might form ties with Ethiopian rebels should Ethiopia continue to pursue its military agreements with Somaliland. Yet experts express skepticism about the likelihood of direct military confrontations taking place within Somali territory, as significant regional actors, including Turkey, are mediating to prevent escalation. In summary, although the ramifications of the Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry grow increasingly complex, the prospect of outright conflict within Somalia remains remote due to the involvement of various stakeholders committed to maintaining stability in the region, particularly amid ongoing crises in neighboring nations such as Sudan and Yemen. However, both Egypt and Ethiopia are anticipated to engage in strategic maneuvers to augment their influence in Somalia, relying on internal dynamics and regional alliances to shape their policies.

The background to the rising tensions in the Horn of Africa centers on Ethiopia’s strategic moves to secure a coastal position through agreements with Somaliland, which Somalia views as a violation of its sovereignty. The militarization of this relationship, coupled with Egypt’s historical rivalry with Ethiopia over water rights and dam projects, has escalated fears of a proxy conflict manifesting in Somalia. The absence of a stable national government in Somalia, coupled with the ongoing threat of militant groups, further intensifies the stakes as regional powers jockey for influence.

In conclusion, while the prospects for Somalia transforming into a proxy battleground between Egypt and Ethiopia exist, various factors dampen immediate armed conflict. The involvement of international mediators and the complex interdependencies among nations in the Horn of Africa suggest that both countries may engage more in strategic influence rather than direct military confrontations. The ongoing arms deliveries and defense agreements indicate shifting alliances that could reshape the political landscape in Somalia, yet the local realities may prevent both Egypt and Ethiopia from pursuing a direct conflict rooted in the current geopolitical tensions.

Original Source: www.newarab.com