Argentina’s Declining Birth Rate Signals Major Demographic Shifts

Argentina’s birth rate has seen a nearly 40% decline over the past decade, reaching a historic low in 2023. With only 460,902 births recorded, this marks a 7% decrease from 2022. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.4 children per woman, raising concerns of population aging and sustained demographic decline. President Javier Milei has attributed this trend partially to the legalization of abortion, as sociocultural and economic factors also play significant roles in the declining birth rates.

On June 4, the Argentine government shared data revealing a staggering near 40% drop in the nation’s birth rate over the past decade. This decline has culminated in a record low for 2023, with just 460,902 births reported—a 7% decrease from the previous year and a significant 41% decline since 2014 when births peaked at 777,012. The crude birth rate now stands at 9.9 births per 1,000 inhabitants, putting Argentina’s figures in line with those of European nations.

Recent findings from the Austral University of Argentina have highlighted a declining fertility rate that has plummeted to 1.4 children per woman, well below the generational replacement rate. This downward trend raises serious concerns about future population aging and the potential for long-term demographic decline unless reversed soon. Meanwhile, a growing number of households lack children under 18 years old, increasing from 44% in 1991 to 57% in 2022. Additionally, the proportion of single-person households has surged from 13% to 25% over the same period.

Concerned about these developments, President Javier Milei has pointed to the legalization of abortion in 2020, along with other progressive policies, as primary culprits for the decline in birth rates. However, despite expressing intentions to repeal the law and potentially present a referendum on the matter during his campaign, this issue has not made it onto his administration’s immediate agenda.

Interestingly, under the guise of reducing public expenditure, Milei’s government has cut back on the distribution of contraceptives and eliminated sexual health programs, shifting those responsibilities onto provincial governments. Despite the notable decrease in births, the number of voluntary legal abortions—labeled IVE/ILE in local terms—rose from 73,000 in 2021 to over 107,000 in 2023. Projections suggest that this trend may continue into 2024 and 2025.

While Milei has emphasized abortion as a major factor, experts argue that various sociocultural and economic challenges are contributing to the decline in birth rates. Factors such as rampant inflation, job insecurity, and the ballooning cost of living lead many couples to either delay or outright abandon plans for parenthood.

Interestingly enough, the average age of first-time mothers has climbed to between 30 and 34 years. Educational disparities also play a role in this trend; births among mothers with lower educational achievements have seen a 77% decline since 2005, whereas falls of 13% and 7% were observed within higher-educated mother categories.

A study conducted by consulting firm Sentimientos Públicos in Buenos Aires reveals that about 20% of individuals under 30 do not wish to have children, prioritizing alternative life goals instead. Conversely, this percentage drops to 11% among millennials aged 30 to 44, with many citing financial concerns as a reason for remaining childless.

Overall, the continuing plunge in Argentina’s birth and fertility rates is indicative of profound demographic shifts. The population aging index, currently at 60.55 for 2025, has risen from 29 in 1991, and the segment of the population aged over 85 has doubled in just two decades. These developments present serious challenges for the healthcare system, educational infrastructure, pension systems, and economic stability moving forward.

The drastic decline in Argentina’s birth rate and fertility level, now at a historic low, signifies deep-rooted demographic transformations for the country. Coupled with rising age averages for parenthood and changing household compositions, these shifts pose significant challenges not only for the future population but also for societal frameworks such as healthcare and the economy. Although the government is focusing the discussion on abortion, broader socioeconomic factors are also significantly influencing these trends. Addressing these multifaceted issues will be crucial as Argentina navigates potential implications on its demographic future.

Original Source: www.upi.com