China’s Missed Emissions Target Challenges Global Climate Goals

China fell short of its 2024 carbon emissions reduction target, raising concerns about its ability to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Despite significant advancements in renewable energy, the country’s carbon intensity decreased only 3.4 percent instead of the planned 3.9 percent. China must address these challenges to positively influence global climate efforts, especially in light of its status as the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

China’s recent failure to meet its 2024 carbon emissions target has raised significant concerns regarding its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality, a crucial aspect in addressing global climate change. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, carbon intensity in China decreased only 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent goal set by the government. Moreover, the country is underperforming against its broader objective of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025, as outlined by the Chinese Communist Party in its five-year plan.

President Xi Jinping has implemented a dual strategy, aiming for peak emissions by the decade’s end and carbon neutrality by 2060. The global community closely monitors China due to its status as the leading emitter, accounting for approximately 30 percent of global emissions, while simultaneously being a pioneer in investments in renewable energy. China’s adherence to its emissions targets will significantly influence international efforts to limit global temperature increases to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as emphasized by the United Nations.

The prospect of maintaining temperatures within this threshold is jeopardized, especially after 2024 marked the first instance in history where global temperatures exceeded this limit. Carbon intensity serves as a vital metric for evaluating China’s progress towards decarbonization, revealing that emissions reductions have not kept pace with economic growth. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember, highlighted that although the economy expanded by 5 percent, electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent, contributing to a 0.8 percent increase in carbon emissions year-on-year.

Record heatwaves further complicate emission reduction efforts by affecting energy output from hydropower, compelling the use of coal to compensate for losses. Nevertheless, significant advancements in renewable energy have emerged, with wind and solar accounting for 14.5 percent and hydropower for 13.4 percent of total energy demand in the previous year. Eric Fishman from the Lantau Group noted that renewable sources satisfied approximately 75 percent of China’s incremental energy demand growth, representing a substantial quantity of clean energy equivalent to Germany’s annual consumption.

Government support, particularly from the upper echelons of the CCP, has propelled this growth. Xi Jinping’s doctrine advocates for an “ecological civilization.” Notably, in 2021, Xi mandated the elimination of high-emission projects that did not meet sustainability criteria and established the world’s most extensive carbon trading market. Furthermore, Xi has called for a transition towards innovative, high-value manufacturing, moving away from traditional industries such as appliances and clothing toward greener sectors including solar energy and electric vehicles.

The forthcoming carbon emissions targets for 2026 to 2030 will be disclosed alongside the next five-year plan and will materially influence both public and private sector strategies. Yao Zhe, a global policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia, remarked that while China is on track to attain peak carbon emissions before 2030, the long-term abandonment of coal remains uncertain. Achieving carbon neutrality will necessitate substantial structural transformations in China’s energy sector and the broader economy, with urgency required following the anticipated emissions peak. Experts express concern that necessary reforms may be postponed, potentially extending beyond 2035.

In conclusion, China’s inability to meet its 2024 carbon emissions target poses substantial challenges to both national and global climate objectives. The country must navigate the complexities of economic growth while pursuing significant reductions in carbon intensity to fulfill its pledges of achieving peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The forthcoming targets for the next five-year plan will be pivotal in guiding China’s transition towards a more sustainable energy sector.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com