China’s Emissions Target Miss and Its Implications for Global Climate Goals

China’s missed emissions targets for 2024 pose challenges to its carbon neutrality ambitions, highlighting concerns about its ability to control carbon emissions despite being a leader in renewable energy investments. The shortfall could have far-reaching implications for global climate efforts as the international community strives to meet critical temperature benchmarks.

China has recently missed a vital carbon emissions target, raising alarm about its goal of achieving carbon neutrality. The country’s carbon intensity, which measures emissions per unit of GDP, decreased by 3.4 percent in 2024, falling short of Beijing’s target of 3.9 percent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Additionally, China is lagging behind its broader goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025, a target outlined by the Chinese Communist Party in its latest five-year plan. President Xi Jinping has set “dual targets” to reach peak emissions before 2030 and aim for carbon neutrality by 2060, making China’s performance crucial to global climate efforts.

China’s actions are critical, being the world’s largest emitter, contributing approximately 30 percent of global emissions, while simultaneously leading in renewable energy investments. The effectiveness of its emissions strategy will substantially influence international endeavors to maintain global temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold established by the United Nations to mitigate severe climate change effects.

In light of the 2024 climate records, the prospects for maintaining this temperature ceiling have grown increasingly uncertain. The year 2024 saw global temperatures exceed the 1.5C limit for the first time, prompting urgent discussions regarding emissions strategies. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst, emphasized that, despite economic growth, emissions reductions were insufficiently rapid relative to this growth.

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has heavily relied on industrial stimulus, resulting in a surge of energy demand. In 2024, while the economy officially grew by 5 percent, electricity demand increased by 6.8 percent year-on-year, accompanied by a corresponding rise in carbon emissions of 0.8 percent.

Record heatwaves have further impeded emissions reduction efforts, forcing increased reliance on coal power when hydropower production is disrupted. Nonetheless, significant advancements in renewable energy have occurred. In 2024, wind and solar energy accounted for 14.5 percent of total energy demand, with hydropower contributing an additional 13.4 percent, demonstrating China’s commitment to clean energy transitions.

Government initiatives, particularly those advocated by the CCP, have bolstered these renewable energy gains. Xi Jinping’s governance ideology prioritizes the establishment of an “ecological civilization.” In 2021, he mandated the termination of high-emission projects and established the world’s largest carbon trading market.

Recently, Xi has promoted the transition towards higher-value, innovation-driven manufacturing, pivoting away from lower-value industries. Anika Patel, a China analyst, remarked on the shift from traditional manufacturing to environmentally sustainable sectors, referred to as the “new three”: solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries.

The CCP is expected to announce new carbon emissions targets for 2026 to 2030 alongside its upcoming five-year plan, which will influence both public and private sector actions. While strides towards peaking carbon emissions by 2030 appear plausible, the future of coal use remains ambiguous. Yao Zhe from Greenpeace East Asia warned that achieving carbon neutrality necessitates substantial structural reforms in China’s energy sector, which need to be implemented soon after emissions peak to ensure long-term sustainability.

In summary, China’s recent shortfall in carbon emissions reductions raises serious questions regarding its commitment to carbon neutrality. Despite its role as a leader in renewable energy, industrial growth has complicated emissions targets, leading to a greater reliance on fossil fuels. To meet future climate goals, significant structural changes will be necessary in China’s energy sector and economic frameworks. The international community remains watchful, as China’s climate strategy will impact global carbon reduction efforts significantly.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com