Ethiopia on the Brink: Abiy Ahmed’s Risky Power Play and the Threat of War

Ethiopia is experiencing a profound crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, economic difficulties, and political instability. The civil war in Tigray, coupled with dissatisfaction among the Amhara and Oromo populations, reflects Abiy Ahmed’s faltering leadership. As tensions escalate, notably over historical maritime claims, the risk of a broader regional conflict intensifies, necessitating urgent international intervention to ensure stability in the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a dire political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic strife, economic turmoil, and escalating instability. The civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022 severely weakened the nation, resulting in exhaustion and uncertainty. Although the Pretoria peace agreement temporarily calmed tensions, profound rifts remain between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Internal divisions within the TPLF threaten to exacerbate the situation, as some factions are willing to collaborate with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while others oppose his leadership vehemently. His attempts to manipulate these divisions for power consolidation carry significant risks, with increasing potential for renewed conflict in Tigray, which would undermine Ethiopia’s fragile stability.

Compounding the issue is the growing discontent among the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second largest ethnic group. Following their cooperation with the government during the Tigray war, many Amhara militias expected their political interests to be recognized. However, perceived betrayals by Abiy’s government, such as the disarmament of their forces and unresolved territorial disputes, have intensified tensions, particularly over contested areas like Wolkait and Raya.

Since 2023, a new resistance movement has emerged among the Amhara, leading to armed clashes with government forces and a declared state of emergency. Amhara elites accuse Abiy of pursuing an Oromo hegemony, neglecting their interests. Ironically, resistance is also escalating in Abiy’s own region of Oromia, where many Oromo citizens express disillusionment with his leadership, feeling abandoned despite his initial promises.

The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has engaged in guerrilla warfare against the government, attributed to the perceived centralization of power and neglect of Oromo interests. Heavy fighting is regularly reported in Oromia, contributing to a dire humanitarian crisis. This conflict poses a significant challenge to Abiy as it weakens his political foundation, threatening the stability of the government itself.

Ethiopia’s economic woes further aggravate the situation, as soaring inflation and unemployment plague the populace. Families are struggling to afford basic necessities and youth face increasing difficulties securing employment, driving many towards armed groups or migration. The government is burdened with significant debts to international creditors and faces the necessity of enacting stringent economic reforms to avert a financial catastrophe.

The combined crises of ethnic conflicts, political instability, and economic struggles risk spiraling Ethiopia toward failure as a state. Analysts warn that the entrenched problems stem from Abiy’s mismanagement, leading to widespread disappointment regarding the anticipated democratization and peace. Once seen as a symbol of hope, he has been criticized for waging war against his own people, seeking to redirect focus through a more assertive foreign policy.

A major feature of this strategy involves Ethiopia’s aspiration for access to the sea, underscored by its dependence on neighboring Djibouti for most trade since losing its coastline with Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Rather than pursuing diplomatic avenues, Abiy advocates forcefully for historic territorial claims, jeopardizing international relations with neighboring states.

The quest for maritime access is rooted in Ethiopia’s political history, with both past leaders using similar arguments to justify expansionist motives. Abiy’s insistence on Ethiopia’s right to coastlines overlooks the necessity of neighboring countries’ consent for such territorial claims, escalating tensions instead of fostering cooperation within the region.

In January 2024, Ethiopia entered a polarizing Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, whereby Somaliland granted Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for diplomatic acknowledgment. This agreement reignited tensions with Somalia and heightened risks of conflict, as Somalia views Somaliland as integral to its territory.

Additionally, reported troop buildups along Ethiopia’s border with Eritrea raise alarms, with Abiy’s rhetoric perceived as a direct threat by Eritrea. Risking a potential resurgence of conflict, historical animosities remain unresolved, and any outbreak could have widespread ramifications throughout the Horn of Africa, possibly drawing in neighboring nations.

The Horn of Africa is already tenuous, with the specter of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatening to destabilize the region even further. A military conflict could precipitate a domino effect, involving Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan, while external actors like Egypt and Saudi Arabia may pursue their interests. The impending humanitarian fallout could be catastrophic, exacerbating hunger and poverty.

Whether Abiy can pursue his geopolitical objectives through diplomacy instead of military action remains uncertain. However, without sustainable diplomatic measures, the risk of plunging the Horn of Africa into devastating conflict looms ever larger, with the potential for far-reaching consequences not only regionally but globally. The urgency for international action to mitigate escalating tensions is critical to prevent another significant crisis from emerging.

In conclusion, Ethiopia’s current socio-political climate is marked by deep ethnic conflicts, disillusionment with leadership, and severe economic strains. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces substantial challenges both domestically and in foreign relations, particularly regarding maritime access. The potential for renewed armed conflict looms heavily over the region, with critical implications for regional stability. It is imperative for both Ethiopia and the international community to prioritize diplomatic solutions to avert a catastrophic outcome. The Horn of Africa stands at a precipice, and without proactive measures, the dangerous cycle of violence may continue unabated.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu