Tigray’s Power Struggle and Looming Conflict: Implications for Ethiopia and Eritrea

Political tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia, are rising following a coup within the TPLF and fears of renewed conflict with Eritrea. Reports indicate violence, mass withdrawals of cash, and potential military confrontations. Tigray’s leaders seek to regain control of fertile lands, while Abiy Ahmed insists on peaceful negotiations for access to the Red Sea. Experts warn the situation could escalate without a diplomatic solution.

In the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the lingering political instability, following years of conflict, has escalated tensions significantly. Aregawi, who initially developed a tour-guiding business before the outbreak of the war in 2020, is now deeply concerned about another imminent conflict. He expressed, “We do not want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.”

The prior conflict between Tigray’s ruling party and the federal government concluded in 2022, resulting in approximately 600,000 fatalities and widespread sexual violence, as noted in a British Medical Journal study. However, the lack of fulfillment of ceasefire agreements, including the return of nearly one million displaced individuals, has caused divisions within the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Tensions escalated further when Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, attempted to dismiss three senior military commanders, claiming they sought to stage a coup. Subsequently, a faction led by TPLF chair Debretsion Gebremichael executed a successful coup, claiming key provincial positions and seizing control of the mayor’s office and radio station in Mekelle. Getachew subsequently fled to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.

Incidents of violence have already occurred, with a recent clash in Tigray resulting in three deaths. Reports emerge of citizens withdrawing cash from banks and booking flights out of the region amidst growing unrest. A local resident remarked on the omnipresent fear, noting, “Fear and uncertainty prevail. My friends are planning to leave for Addis Ababa, Kenya, and Uganda because of the fear of war.”

Compounding the crisis is the deteriorating relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Despite their former alliance during the Tigray conflict, there has been increasing tension regarding Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for Red Sea access, which Ethiopia lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Abiy has called the loss of coastal access “a historical mistake” and insists that regaining control of Eritrea’s Assab port is vital for Ethiopia’s survival as a landlocked nation.

Meanwhile, Eritrea has undertaken a nationwide mobilization effort and appears to support insurgents opposing Ethiopia’s government in the Amhara region, with intelligence allegedly aiding Debretsion’s faction during the coup. In response, Ethiopia has bolstered its military presence at the Eritrean border, and state media have begun promoting claims related to Assab port.

Tigray’s Vice-President, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, raised alarms that violence could erupt uncontrollably, warning the region could revert to being a battlefield. Former US and EU envoys, Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, noted that the region is on the cusp of serious conflict, describing the situation as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.”

In light of these developments, Abiy has publicly stated his intentions to regain port access peacefully and emphasized, “Ethiopia has no intention to invade Eritrea to gain Red Sea access.” His approach appears diplomatic, aiming for negotiations under principles of mutual benefit. After engaging with both factions of Tigray, Abiy seems less inclined to intervene militarily in support of Getachew, which could provoke renewed violence.

Yet, the situation remains precarious as Tigray’s new leadership seeks to reclaim western Tigray, an area rich in resources, from Amhara forces. Analyst Ahmed Soliman from Chatham House warns that any military attempts to regain this territory could ignite further conflict. He stated, “The crux is how things evolve in Tigray and how Abiy responds. If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate.”

The situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia is increasingly unstable due to internal power struggles and external tensions with Eritrea. Reports of violence, rising fears among residents, and a significant military buildup highlight the potential for renewed conflict. As Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed navigates this volatile landscape, the need for proactive and peaceful resolutions becomes critical to prevent further escalation.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com