Analyst Warns of Imminent Collapse of South Sudan Peace Agreement

Professor Jok Madut Jok warns that South Sudan is on the brink of civil war as the 2018 peace deal collapses. Tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar are escalating, and the SPLM/A-IO faces difficult decisions. Prof. Jok highlights increasing communal violence, a dire economic situation, and urges citizens to demand accountability from their leaders, as the country’s future hangs in the balance.

Professor Jok Madut Jok, a distinguished South Sudanese political analyst at Syracuse University, has issued a grave warning regarding the precarious state of peace in South Sudan. He asserts that the 2018 peace agreement is on the verge of collapse due to rising tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. Prof. Jok indicates that the SPLM/A-IO, under Dr. Machar, faces a crucial decision to either accept current political realities or risk returning to armed conflict.

In an interview with Radio Tamazuj, Prof. Jok articulates his concerns regarding the leadership dynamics of Dr. Machar, who is reportedly under house arrest and struggling to maintain command. He notes there is turmoil within the leadership of the SPLM/A-IO, with many of its commanders either in hiding or fighting in the bush. Additionally, he highlights the plundering of governmental roles by the SPLM-IG, criticizing the lack of commitment from President Kiir to maintain the peace agreement.

Prof. Jok warns that if the unfolding situation persists, the peace agreement may be irreparably dismantled. According to him, the SPLM-IG’s consolidation of power will marginalize opposition voices, forcing them to choose between submission and rebellion, leaving the future of the peace deal uncertain.

Moreover, the professor draws attention to escalating communal conflicts, linking them to the political turmoil in Juba. He observes increased violence and strained relations among ethnic communities, particularly between the Nuer and Jieng tribes, underscoring that the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) fails to address the fundamental causes of these conflicts.

The economic and humanitarian crises in South Sudan remain dire, as Prof. Jok cites failing harvests and disrupted trade prompted by regional instability. He contends that should the country descend into full-scale warfare, the repercussions would be catastrophic for its citizens.

Prof. Jok expresses concern regarding the government’s allocation of funds to foreign troops while neglecting the salaries of its own soldiers. He views this disparity as a source of resentment within the national army and an undermining factor for national unity.

The professor calls for a collective response from South Sudanese citizens to demand accountability from their leadership, urging them to collectively address injustices. He warns of the potential disengagement of the international community if the situation does not improve.

In final remarks, Prof. Jok emphasizes the critical choices that lie ahead for South Sudan, stating, “The choices made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country descends into further chaos or finds a path to lasting peace.”

In summary, Professor Jok Madut Jok articulates serious concerns regarding the deteriorating peace situation in South Sudan, emphasizing the impact of internal political strife and communal discord. The collapse of the 2018 peace agreement, rampant communal conflicts, and the dire economic crisis contribute to a volatile landscape. He urges South Sudanese citizens to unite for accountability and stresses the significance of the imminently critical choices facing the nation, which may shape its future stability and peace.

Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org