Renewed Tensions in Tigray Risk Escalating into a Broader Conflict

The article discusses the escalating tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia, as civilians flee amid fears of renewed conflict. Increased military presence from Eritrea and Ethiopia, coupled with internal political strife within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), threatens another outbreak of war. Unresolved issues from the Pretoria Agreement and Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access contribute to regional instability, with significant implications for the Horn of Africa and strategic interests from external powers.

In light of rising tensions in Tigray, civilians are fleeing the region as fears of renewed conflict grow. Both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have significantly increased their military presence along the shared border, indicating a deterioration of relations between the two nations. These developments follow Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to secure access to the Red Sea and a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), threatening to reignite full-scale warfare.

The current unrest stems from deepening divisions among TPLF factions, which are fueled by external influences, particularly Eritrea’s alleged support for certain groups within Tigray. The conflict is driven by political rivalries, with President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael at odds. The Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to bring peace after the devastating Tigray War from 2020 to 2022, appears to be failing in its execution, exacerbating tensions between the societies.

Recent events indicate a rapid escalation of violence, particularly noted on March 11, which saw clashes that forced TIRA leader Reda to flee to Addis Ababa. Reports reveal that security forces loyal to Debretsion have overtaken major Tigray towns, including the regional capital, Mekelle, marking a notable power shift. This situation prompted mass civilian withdrawals from the region as military preparations intensify on both sides.

On March 17, a meeting involving Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and key TPLF leaders took place, resulting in General Tadesse Werede’s appointment as TIRA chief. Nevertheless, conflicts have persisted, reflecting ongoing tensions amid an atmosphere of remobilization for further military action. The fraying authority of TIRA officials adds to the complexity of the governance in Tigray, as rivalry factions vie for control in a deeply fractured political landscape.

Compounding these issues are Ethiopia’s impoverished diplomatic relations with Eritrea, which have led to mutual accusations of supporting insurgencies. Ethiopia’s aspirations for Red Sea access are simultaneously escalating friction, particularly after it secured a maritime agreement with Somaliland. This agreement is perceived by Eritrea as a threat to its sovereignty, prompting it to reinforce support for factions opposed to Ethiopian governance.

The Ethiopian military is currently stretched thin due to ongoing conflicts within its borders, particularly against ethnic groups like the Fano. This raises concerns about Ethiopia’s capacity for engagement in a broader conflict with Eritrea, especially if ethnic violence were to escalate concurrently. Eritrea’s potential exploitation of Ethiopia’s military weaknesses to further its own interests is a dangerous calculus that heightens the risk of conflict.

The acute instability in Tigray and lingering tensions with Eritrea are not only regional issues but could have significant ramifications extending beyond the immediate area. Both nations are entangled in Sudan’s civil war, supporting rival factions and contributing to further instability. Additionally, foreign interests—including those of the UAE and Iran—are also at play, complicating the geopolitical landscape as they vie for influence amid the discord.

Moreover, jihadist groups in the Sahel may exploit the conflict to strengthen their positions, further destabilizing an already volatile region. Reports of cooperation between Somali al-Shabaab and local insurgents underscore the threat of increased extremism amid Ethiopia’s internal struggles. Thus, the Horn of Africa remains a critical flashpoint, with far-reaching consequences likely if current tensions escalate further.

In conclusion, the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea present a concerning scenario as renewed conflict in Tigray could trigger a broader regional war. The complex interplay of political instability, external influences, and military mobilization creates a precarious situation. If not addressed, these developments may lead to significant humanitarian crises and geopolitical repercussions in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Stakeholders must navigate the intricate dynamics at play to mitigate the risks of escalation.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org