Renewed Tensions in Tigray Risk Broader Conflict Escalation

Renewed tensions in Tigray are leading to mass civilian flights as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces increase military operations along their border. This situation stems from unresolved issues following the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access and Eritrea’s counteractions heighten the risk of a broader conflict that could have significant regional implications.

The Tigray region in Ethiopia is witnessing a significant exodus of civilians amid fears of renewed conflict, as military tensions escalate along the border with Eritrea. This resurgence of violence follows the 2020-2022 Tigray War, and both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces are amassing troops, signaling a deteriorating relationship. Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access and internal political strife within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) may incite full-scale conflict between the nations.

As political factions within the TPLF clash, Eritrea appears to be exacerbating tensions by supporting certain groups over others. The political landscape has shifted dramatically since the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement in May 2023—a peace treaty that has failed to stabilize the situation and has instead deepened existing divides. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s designation of Getachew Reda as the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) leader has led to strife, as opposition factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael seek to regain control, and local governance structures have collapsed.

Recent high-profile clashes have left the TPLF divided, with security forces loyal to Debretsion capturing key towns and exerting control over media outlets. Civilian panic is evident as people withdraw funds and flee, while military activity increases along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. Discussions among political leaders have resulted in new appointments, yet calls for mobilization and divisions within factions threaten to escalate unrest.

Failure to implement the critical provisions of the Pretoria Agreement, particularly regarding disarmament, has contributed to instability. Ethiopia’s lack of recognition of the TPLF as a political entity and ongoing territorial disputes exacerbate the situation. Eritrea’s exclusion from negotiations has prompted it to support opposing factions, complicating peace efforts.

Ethiopia’s military is currently stretched thin, as it combats domestic unrest, further complicating its capacity for engaging Eritrea in conflict. The threat of ethnic violence is heightened due to Ethiopia’s diverse political landscape, which includes several armed factions. Eritrea seems poised to take advantage of Ethiopia’s military limitations to further its own interests.

Instability in the Tigray region has regional implications, particularly concerning Sudan’s civil war, where both Eritrea and Ethiopia are providing support to rival factions. There are indications of involvement from various international interests, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and Russia, which may further complicate the situation, emphasizing the strategic importance of the Red Sea region.

The ongoing conflict poses risks of exploitation by jihadist groups operating in the Sahel and may amplify their influence in the region. Reports suggest links between Ethiopian rebel groups and al-Shabaab in Somalia, threatening both national and regional stability. The convergence of local turmoil, regional struggles, and international geopolitics suggests that the Horn of Africa remains a flashpoint for potential escalation with disastrous consequences.

In conclusion, the renewed tensions in Tigray present a volatile situation, fueled by internal strife within the TPLF, regional ambitions, and the dynamics of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. The historical context of conflict, coupled with failures to uphold peace agreements, indicates a precarious path ahead. The interplay of national ambitions and international interests further complicates the landscape, making the Horn of Africa a critical area of concern for ongoing and escalating conflict.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org