Looming Ethiopia-Eritrea Tension: Is a New Cycle of Armed Conflict Imminent?

Ethiopia and Eritrea’s relationship is marked by historical turbulence and recent tensions, culminating in fears of renewed armed conflict. The 2018 Peace Accord, while initially promising, lacked transparency and involvement from key stakeholders. Subsequent developments, including territorial occupation and regional alliances, heighten concerns over stability in the Horn of Africa, emphasizing the need for proactive diplomacy to avert escalation.

The longstanding relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been fraught with turbulence, characterized by temporary alliances lacking strategic cooperation. Following Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993, both nations initially enjoyed positive relations. However, this harmony was short-lived, ultimately giving way to the destructive Ethio-Eritrean border war that began in 1998, resulting in significant loss of life and resources and ending with the Algiers Peace Agreement in 2000.

Despite the signing of the Algiers Peace Agreement, lasting peace was elusive as Ethiopia resisted the border ruling established by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC). Relations descended into mutual hostility, resembling Cold War dynamics. A notable shift occurred in July 2018, leading to a thaw in diplomatic relations that garnered international commendation, culminating in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

However, the 2018 Peace Accord was plagued by issues, including the lack of involvement from key stakeholders and transparency regarding critical topics such as border demarcation and trade agreements. Notably, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was dismissive of the peace process, contributing to subsequent tensions. The alliance with Eritrea ultimately became a significant factor in the Tigray war that erupted in 2020, compounding Ethiopia’s internal strife and resource challenges.

The signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) in November 2022 offered renewed hope for peace, yet criticism arose due to the exclusion of vital combatants from the negotiation process. Following this development, Eritrea expressed discontent with the agreement, viewing it as a betrayal. Consequently, the diplomatic reconciliation appears stalled, as Eritrean troops continue to occupy parts of Tigray and are reportedly supplying support to conflict groups in Ethiopia.

In light of Ethiopia’s recent agreements securing access to commercial ports in Somaliland, concerns mount regarding the potential for renewed armed conflict with Eritrea. The international dynamics are further complicated by Eritrean reinforcement efforts, while rising hostility has recently led to the suspension of flights between Ethiopian Airlines and Eritrea.

The broader context of the Horn of Africa remains precarious, with various conflicts impacting regional stability. The tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could invoke external actors seeking to protect their interests, potentially escalating the situation further. Consequently, fostering dialogue and proactive diplomacy is essential to mitigate risks of renewed conflict and to establish a foundation for lasting peace.

Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea is marked by a tumultuous history and recent tensions that threaten regional stability. The failure of the 2018 Peace Accord to foster inclusive and transparent dialogue has underscored ongoing challenges. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s strategic alliances and external influences add complexity to the situation, making effective diplomacy crucial for preventing further armed conflict. Continued monitoring and proactive engagement by the international community are imperative to ensure peace in the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: addisstandard.com