Implications of Recent Rebel Gains in Syria’s Civil War

Recent rebel offensives in Aleppo signify a critical escalation in Syria’s 13-year civil war, with implications for regional stability. The attacks, led by HTS, could reshape power dynamics and invite further foreign intervention, particularly between Russia and Turkey. The war has resulted in significant casualties and a refugee crisis, leaving 30% of Syria beyond Assad’s control.

The prolonged civil war in Syria, which has lasted for thirteen years, has recently intensified due to an unexpected offensive by rebel forces in Aleppo, a prominent city in Syria. This event marks the strongest rebel action in recent years, occurring after a significant absence of large-scale conflict since 2016, when Russian military intervention enabled President Bashar Assad to regain control of the area.

The resurgence of fighting is particularly alarming as it may reopen another violent front in the Middle East, coinciding with U.S.-backed Israeli involvement against Hamas and Hezbollah. Robert Ford, the last U.S. ambassador to Syria, indicated that prior Israeli airstrikes on Syrian and Hezbollah positions have created circumstances advantageous for the rebels’ advance.

The current combat in Aleppo is significant due to the historical context of the civil war and its catastrophic toll, with an estimated half-million fatalities and a refugee crisis impacting Europe. Approximately 30% of Syria remains free from Assad’s control, with various opposition groups and foreign armies stationed in the region. U.S. troops are positioned in northeastern Syria to counter the Islamic State’s resurgence, while Turkey holds influence over the coalition of forces attacking Aleppo.

Analysts like Charles Lister suggest that if government forces cannot maintain their positions, this conflict may lead to substantial shifts in territorial control and potentially invite Islamic State fighters to exploit the situation. Moreover, Ford warned that escalating hostilities could further destabilize the region by drawing Russia and Turkey into direct conflict.

The offensive is spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group previously classified as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and U.N. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who has tried to distance his organization from its extremist past, HTS aims to position itself as a legitimate force in the Syrian conflict despite initial associations with al-Qaeda and violent extremism.

Historically, Aleppo has been a vital commercial and cultural hub for thousands of years, housing 2.3 million residents prior to the conflict. The city became a significant battleground in 2012, showcasing the advancements of the opposition forces. However, in 2016, after relentless bombardment by Russian forces, these rebels ultimately surrendered, capitulating to a siege that left the city devastated and marked a pivotal moment in the war.

The recent rebel gains in Aleppo signal a potential shift in the dynamics of the long-standing Syrian conflict. This resurgence could alter territorial control and provoke further instability in the region, especially if external powers like Russia and Turkey become embroiled in direct confrontation. The involvement of HTS raises critical questions regarding the future of organized resistance against Assad, as well as the broader implications for both the local and international communities amidst the enduring humanitarian crisis in Syria.

Original Source: apnews.com