Rising Violence in South Sudan: Understanding the Current Crisis and Paths to Stability

Increasing political tensions and violence in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, could lead to civil war. Uganda’s intervention and the government’s aggressive response have escalated conflicts with the White Army. Historical grievances between communities play a critical role. Experts suggest dialogue and community engagement as vital steps to prevent a resurgence of war as the international response has been insufficient.

Recent political tensions and escalating violence in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, have raised concerns of a potential civil war. In March 2025, Uganda intervened by sending troops at South Sudan’s request and conducting aerial bombardments. This intervention has drawn criticism from opposition groups, halting discussions toward establishing a joint military system and jeopardizing the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar. Researcher Jan Pospisil highlights the factors contributing to the growing unrest.

In early March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, initiated assaults against the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County, resulting in numerous fatalities and injuries. The White Army claims its actions were defensive. This outburst of violence follows earlier conflicts but has escalated alarmingly due to heavy-handed government responses, including airstrikes and arrests of prominent opposition figures, exacerbating tensions.

Historical animosities between the Nuer and Dinka communities further complicate the situation, stemming from the 1991 split within the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The emergence of the White Army dates back to this fractious period, focusing on defending the Nuer community. Notably, Riek Machar has struggled to gain command over all Nuer militias, underscoring the White Army’s autonomy.

Unlike the civil war that erupted in 2013, which saw violent confrontations between government troops and the Nuer-majority communities, current conflicts appear motivated by spontaneous provocations without a central directive. Initial clashes in February arose when White Army members attacked soldiers, leading to casualities and retaliatory actions. This prompted a power shift, with the White Army capturing territory, including army barracks, which has resulted in further governmental crackdowns on opposition members.

To prevent a resurgence of war, experts suggest prioritizing dialogue and community demobilization. The South Sudanese government should cease arbitrary arrests of opposition figures out of humiliation and avoid indiscriminate assaults on civilians. Additionally, engaging local leaders who influence the White Army in negotiations during the rainy season, when military operations will be challenging, could facilitate confidence-building measures.

The international community has expressed concern over the escalating violence in Nasir; however, concrete actions remain sparse. The UN mission has called for caution but often overlooks the White Army’s independent nature. Clear condemnation of the arrests of opposition figures is crucial to avoid reinforcing harmful narratives justifying military aggression. Emphasizing the need for de-escalation and political dialogue targeting the root grievances is paramount.

The rising violence and political strife in South Sudan underscores a complex situation characterized by historical tensions, inter-community strife, and a precarious governmental response. The plight of the White Army and the ongoing political dialogue are critical components in addressing the underlying causes of discontent. It is essential for both domestic leadership and the international community to advocate for peaceful resolution and demobilization to avert further conflict.

Original Source: theconversation.com