Rising Violence in South Sudan: Understanding the Current Crisis and Paths to Peace

South Sudan is experiencing escalating violence, predominantly involving the Nuer community’s White Army and government forces, raising fears of renewed civil war. Historical tensions, exacerbated by military interventions and opposition suppression, threaten the fragile peace established by the 2018 power-sharing deal. A focus on dialogue and de-escalation is critical to avoiding further conflict, with immediate action needed from both the South Sudan government and the international community to address the situation comprehensively.

Rising political tensions and violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile State are heightening concerns of potential civil war, a situation reminiscent of historical conflicts between the Nuer and Dinka communities. The conflict, exacerbated by the 1991 split of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), recently escalated with Ugandan military support requested by the South Sudan government, leading to tensions with opposition groups and risks to the fragile power-sharing agreement established in 2018.

In March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, engaged in violent attacks against the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County. This violence has resulted in fatalities and numerous injuries, following claims of self-defense by the White Army. The government’s military response, including aerial bombardments and the arrests of key opposition leaders, has further inflamed existing tensions, highlighting a cycle of violence embedded in the country’s history.

The ongoing conflict is rooted in the historical animosities stemming from the SPLM’s split, which gave rise to various factions competing for control and influence, such as the emergence of the White Army. This militia’s autonomy complicates the conflict dynamics, as it often operates independently of political commands while responding to grievances specific to the Nuer community.

Unlike the violent outbreaks associated with the 2013 civil war, recent attacks by the White Army appear to be reactions to provocations rather than orchestrated political strategies. Recent skirmishes have escalated tensions, further destabilizing the region, notably following significant defeats faced by government forces, which have hurt national morale and led to increased repression of opposition figures by the SPLM-led government.

To avert a return to war, it is critical for the government to engage in productive dialogue rather than resorting to the arrest of opposition figures driven by humiliation. Moreover, community demobilization and engagement with influential leaders within the White Army are essential for de-escalating tensions. The imminent rainy season offers a chance for establishing confidence-building measures amidst logistical challenges to military operations.

Despite growing violence, the international community’s response has been limited to condemnations without concrete actions to aid in de-escalation. The UN has called for restraint but has not fully acknowledged the autonomous nature of the White Army. Clear, unequivocal messages from international actors condemning the arrest of opposition figures are vital to support a genuine transition process and mitigate further violence.

In conclusion, the rising violence in South Sudan signals a troubling phase in a country already fraught with the legacy of conflict. The dynamics of ethnic tensions, particularly between the Nuer and Dinka, combined with provocative military engagements and political maneuvers, necessitate urgent action. Emphasizing dialogue, promoting community engagement, and addressing underlying grievances, alongside a more proactive international response, are essential strategies to prevent a return to civil war.

Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke