Rising Tensions: The Escalating Rivalry between Turkey and Iran Over Syria and Iraq

Turkey and Iran’s tensions are escalating due to shifting regional powers post-Syrian war. Turkey perceives an opportunity to assert dominance, while Iran aims to counter these advances. Both nations are embroiled in a complex rivalry in Iraq and Syria, with heightened risks of conflict or proxy competition emerging in the region.

Tensions between Turkey and Iran have escalated, as both nations navigate an increasingly complex regional power dynamic following the Syrian civil war. With Turkey’s influence growing and Iran’s waning after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the rivalry is intensifying, particularly in Syria and Iraq. The recent discord ignited as Iranian criticism of Turkish policies led to warnings from Turkish officials, highlighting the precarious nature of their relationship amid changing geopolitical circumstances.

Historically, Turkey has perceived Iran’s actions as destabilizing. The alliance established in 2015 between Saudi Arabia and Turkey aimed to create a Sunni coalition against Iran. However, Turkey’s reliance on Iranian energy and Tehran’s significant influence in Syria prevented Turkey from fully committing to this alliance. Currently, a shifting geopolitical landscape presents Turkey with an opportunity to assert its influence.

Israel’s military actions have weakened Iran, further diminishing its regional clout. Concurrently, Turkey is becoming less dependent on Iranian energy sources, having diversified its suppliers in the wake of heightened US sanctions against Iran. This newfound autonomy empowers Ankara to pursue its objectives in Iraq and Syria, where it seeks stronger political and economic alliances following the Assad regime’s decline.

Iran, however, is determined to reaffirm its relevance and confront Turkish advances. Iranian leaders publicly critiqued Turkish officials, emphasizing Tehran’s capability to retaliate against any perceived Turkish interference within its borders. Analysts in Iran express concern over Turkey’s aspirations reminiscent of its Ottoman past, positing that Turkey’s actions could incite unrest among Iran’s ethnic minorities.

Tehran’s strategic messaging aims to convey its leverage over Ankara. Despite Iran’s recent setbacks in Syria, it retains the potential to disrupt Turkish interests there. Iranian officials’ mixed signals indicate an unclear future regarding their involvement in the post-Assad landscape. In Iraq, where Turkey seeks to strengthen its trade and energy connections, Iranian influence remains formidable, complicating Ankara’s ambitions.

Although some Iranian officials advocate for de-escalation, the dynamics are poised for potential conflict. The realities of heightened Turkish criticism and Tehran’s resilient stance suggest that while outright warfare is unlikely, an intensified proxy rivalry remains a plausible outcome. Both nations’ competition could extend beyond their immediate borders, possibly affecting regions as diverse as the South Caucasus and the Gulf states.

In conclusion, the rivalry between Turkey and Iran could redefine regional dynamics, especially in Iraq and Syria. Both nations are entrenched in a complex web of historical grievances and strategic aspirations. While efforts for de-escalation are present, the situation remains volatile, indicating that the specter of escalated conflict looms large. A careful approach from Turkey, amidst Iran’s stated intentions to counter Turkish moves, could pave the way for tension reduction in the region.

The escalating tensions between Turkey and Iran underscore a significant shift in their regional influence and power dynamics. With Turkey seeking to capitalize on Iran’s waning strength, the potential for conflict exists, yet both nations display an awareness of the benefits of avoiding war. To prevent further escalation, both should consider diplomatic strategies, acknowledging the precarious balance of power that now characterizes their interactions in Syria and Iraq.

Original Source: www.mei.edu