Exploring the Implications of the Damascus-SDF Agreement for Syrian Reconciliation

A historic agreement was signed between Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led SDF on March 10, aimed at national unity and reconciliation. However, doubts linger regarding its implementation amid ongoing violence and political complexities. The deal promises recognition of Kurdish rights and economic cooperation, particularly concerning oil revenues, but it remains to be seen how practical challenges will be resolved.

On March 10, a significant agreement was signed between the interim government of the Syrian Arab Republic and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), aimed at fostering unity within Syria. However, the execution of this deal remains questionable in light of the recent constitutional declaration. This landmark agreement intends to blend all military and civilian entities into the Syrian state, reflecting President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s pursuit of legitimacy amid international scrutiny concerning the violence against minority Alawites.

The potential impact of this agreement could be considerable, observed Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. He emphasized that the deal’s timing is crucial, given the ongoing security challenges, including recent violent incidents along the coast and Israeli military operations in southern Syria. The pressures faced by Damascus are believed to have prompted the negotiation of this agreement.

Mutlu Civiroglu, a Kurdish affairs analyst, indicated that the deal allows Al-Sharaa to present himself as a leader dedicated to the representation of all identities within Syria. He noted that SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi is well-respected across various communities, including Alawites, Druze, and Christians, which may facilitate broader acceptance of the deal.

Kurdish organizations, such as the SDF and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), have denounced recent attacks on Alawites, asserting that these acts form part of a systematic campaign against minority groups in Syria. Abdi has called for Al-Sharaa’s intervention to stop the violence, which has seen significant bloodshed, including an ambush in Jableh, resulting in at least 13 deaths, triggering a series of retaliatory killings against Alawite civilians.

The violence escalated on March 9, further straining the region and prompting tens of thousands of Alawites to seek refuge in the mountains. According to Rami Abdulrahman from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), there is a belief that an SDF presence could enhance security in these areas.

The agreement between Damascus and the SDF is set for implementation by the year’s end, affirming the Kurdish community’s rights as an integral part of the Syrian state. It guarantees the Kurdish right to citizenship and constitutional rights while imposing a ceasefire in SDF-controlled zones, which have been previously targeted by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.

The deal is anticipated to yield economic advantages for both parties. Joshua Landis, director at the Center for Middle East Studies, highlighted oil’s pivotal role in the agreement, suggesting it would be crucial for generating revenue for Syria’s future. Although the interim government will gain control of oil fields, the Kurds will receive a portion of the profits, which is viewed as a mutually beneficial arrangement.

Additionally, the document emphasizes the necessity of restoring Syria’s oil production, which has declined sharply due to years of conflict and sanctions. Effective recovery of this sector is vital for the country’s reconstruction, projected to cost up to $400 billion, and securing foreign investment in energy will be essential to this endeavor.

Hawach reiterated that implementation of the agreement could drive economic growth in northeastern Syria, which is rich in resources. This integration of SDF-controlled areas back into the Syrian governance framework denotes a significant step toward healing the national divide that has marked the 14-year conflict. Various nations, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, France, Germany, and Canada, have expressed support for the agreement.

Nevertheless, its efficacy will ultimately depend on how the involved parties address unresolved practical aspects of integration. Landis noted that while the deal allows some autonomy for northeastern Syria, it remains an incomplete framework for future cooperation. He added that the military aspect is crucial, with the SDF needing to integrate into the Syrian Defense Ministry, albeit retaining regional control in the northeast, reminiscent of arrangements seen in Iraq.

The dynamics between the Kurdish-led forces and the Syrian government indicate a complex relationship, with Syria’s constitution lacking specific arrangements for Kurdish autonomy. Moreover, recent actions, including signatures on a temporary constitution establishing Islamist governance for a five-year transitional phase, have raised alarms within the SDF’s political wing—the Syrian Democratic Council—calling for a reformulation to ensure a fair power distribution and recognition of all Syrian communities’ rights.

The agreement between the Syrian interim government and the SDF presents a critical pathway toward potential national reconciliation in Syria, yet its successful execution depends on resolving key implementation challenges. While the deal offers promises of recognition and economic collaboration, significant political uncertainties remain, particularly concerning military integration and constitutional rights. The parties must focus on formalizing arrangements to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region while respecting the diverse identities within Syria’s population.

Original Source: www.arabnews.com