Ethiopia’s Internal Divisions in Tigray Raise Fears of Renewed Conflict

Ethiopia’s internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and escalating tensions with Eritrea are creating fears of renewed conflict. Residents are experiencing significant hardships post-war, while political disagreements hinder peace implementation. The potential for a larger war looms as leadership struggles continue within the TPLF.

More than two years after a peace agreement concluded the conflict in Tigray, internal strife within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is raising concerns over a potential resurgence of violence. These tensions are exacerbated by a growing divide between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly in light of recent skirmishes in Tigray’s capital, Mekele.

Residents of Tigray express distress amidst mounting adversity, characterized by long lines for fuel, urgent bank withdrawals, and skyrocketing food prices. Given the traumatic aftermath of the prior conflict, which resulted in approximately 600,000 casualties, citizens fear a relapse into warfare. This previous conflict prominently featured the TPLF, who had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly thirty years prior to their overthrow.

On March 11, clashes ensued in Mekele following the dismissal of three senior officers in the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) by the region’s interim administration. By March 13, the TDF had regained control over several governmental entities and appointed a new city leader in Adigrat, Tigray’s second-largest urban center.

The crux of the ongoing crisis lies in internal TPLF disagreements regarding the implementation of the November 2022 peace accord. A million displaced individuals remain unable to return to their homes, disarmament efforts for the TDF have stalled, and Eritrean troops continue their presence in Ethiopian territory.

Gérard Prunier, an esteemed historian, has expressed concern over Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s perceived reluctance to fully endorse the peace deal, suggesting that the Prime Minister aims to further marginalize the Tigrayan population. The internal conflict within the TPLF, primarily between interim administrator Getachew Reda and TPLF president Debretsion Gebremichael, highlights the leadership struggle exacerbating the situation.

Simultaneously, Ethiopia’s strained relations with Eritrea are intensifying. Reports indicate that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki met with TDF leaders aligned with Debretsion in Asmara, a claim denied by the TPLF leader. Prunier warns of Afwerki’s potential backing for secessionists, linked to his long-standing ambition to reshape Ethiopia’s political landscape.

Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a prominent strategist from Tigray, cautioned that a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could ignite at any moment. He has urged immediate measures to prevent Tigray from transforming into a battleground amid the escalating proxy conflict between both nations.

Meanwhile, discussions surrounding the recovery for sexual violence victims in Tigray continue to underscore the region’s profound suffering and the need for comprehensive healing strategies.

In summary, Ethiopia faces critical internal divisions within the TPLF and rising tensions with Eritrea, heightening fears of renewed conflict. The aftermath of the previous war continues to haunt Tigray residents, with significant humanitarian challenges looming. Political disagreements regarding peace implementation and leadership dynamics within the TPLF further complicate the situation. Thus, urgent and effective measures are necessary to avert another possible civil war and ensure stability in the region.

Original Source: international.la-croix.com