Ethiopia and Eritrea: The Path to Potential Conflict and Regional Instability

Ethiopia’s tensions with Eritrea highlight a potential for renewed conflict driven by Abiy Ahmed’s consolidation of power amidst ethnic fragmentation. The historical backdrop of Ethiopian imperial ambitions and the recent Tigray War underline the precarious nature of the region. A military engagement with Eritrea may serve Abiy’s needs to unify the nation against external threats, yet could plunge the Horn of Africa into deeper chaos. Diplomatic engagement remains crucial in averting disaster.

The current tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have raised concerns of potential renewed conflict, linked to Ethiopia’s historic ambition to annex Eritrea’s coastline. The regime of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is seen as attempting to revitalize Haile Selassie’s colonial aspirations amidst the backdrop of intense ethnic fragmentation in Ethiopia. This situation, where Abiy faces internal dissent, poses the threat of escalation into a war that could serve to consolidate his power while diverting attention from domestic instability.

Abiy Ahmed, often portrayed as a reformer, grapples with deep-seated ethno-political divisions that threaten his authoritarian rule. Ethiopia’s history is characterized by ethnic fracturing long before the introduction of ethnic federalism; thus, blaming recent divides solely on current governance is a calculated misdirection. Meles Zenawi’s previous regime implemented a federalist system to navigate Ethiopia’s ethnic landscape but failed to fortify unity, leaving a legacy of division.

The notion of war with Eritrea extends beyond mere territorial ambitions; it may also represent a strategic lifeline for Abiy, offering a pretext to unify the nation under a guise of external conflict while suppressing internal factions. Yet, Ethiopia’s military overstretch renders this pursuit precarious, with ongoing confrontations in various regions stretching resources thin. Engaging Eritrea may be perceived not as an assertion of strength, but as an act of desperation.

The implications of a renewed conflict could destabilize the Horn of Africa even further. Neighboring Sudan suffers from civil war, South Sudan teeters on the brink of renewed conflict, and Somalia grapples with threats from al-Shabaab. Any war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would only exacerbate this existing chaos, drawing in regional and international actors, raising the stakes significantly.

The Tigray War exemplified the catastrophic consequences of the current leadership’s strategies. Orchestrated by the allied regimes of Abiy and Isaias Afewerki, this conflict resulted in a significant loss of life and widespread devastation, with the intentional siege tactics perpetuated by Abiy’s forces signaling a move toward genocide against the Tigray population. Yet, the war served to bolster the power of both leaders by eliminating one of their primary threats, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Despite the signing of a peace agreement in late 2022, the root issues driving conflict remain, as the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) continue to pose a significant threat. Abiy’s alliance with Eritrea not only serves to strengthen his military capabilities but also fosters resentment between Tigrayans and Eritreans, complicating the geopolitical landscape. This rhetoric positions Abiy as the dominant power broker while suppressing any semblance of opposition from the Tigray region.

Both regimes share a vested interest in quelling any potential cooperation between the Tigrayans and Eritreans, as their own survival depends on maintaining the status quo of fear and division. Afewerki’s regime has navigated the conflict as a means of ensuring his longevity in power, yet at the cost of Eritrea’s autonomy, igniting questions about his nationalist credentials.

Emerging from within the military ranks may be the key to initiating change against the Eritrean dictatorship, as junior officers who are not yet embedded in the oppression of the regime hold the potential to enact reform. However, the erosion of genuine opposition and discontent among grassroots factions signifies a troubling reality for Eritrean sovereignty.

Ultimately, the stakes from a potential conflict extend beyond borders, threatening the fabric of stability in the Horn of Africa. Diplomatic efforts are essential to forestall further escalation, particularly with Abiy’s regime showing a determination to pursue aggressive tactics to maintain its grip on power. If escalated militarily, the implications for Eritrea and its people could prove dire, raising the troubling question of what violence may be unleashed upon them.

The tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, largely exacerbated by the authoritarian regime of Abiy Ahmed, present a dire situation that could lead to renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. Ethnic fragmentation in Ethiopia, coupled with Abiy’s desperate attempts to consolidate power through external aggression, creates a precarious environment. The potential consequences are grave, not only for these nations but for the broader region that is already reeling from various conflicts. The international community’s engagement is critical to avert catastrophe and maintain peace. Should conflict arise, the ramifications may extend deeply into Eritrea, raising concerns over civilian impacts amidst the geopolitical maneuverings of both regimes.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu