Iran’s Strategic Resilience Amidst External Pressures

Iran faces considerable challenges including the weakening of allies and geopolitical shifts. U.S. officials perceive it as strategically defeated, yet Iran views these setbacks as temporary. The regime has implemented limited domestic reforms to bolster support while resisting external pressure. Ultimately, Tehran aims to maintain stability and cohesion in the face of potential confrontation with the U.S., all while sticking firmly to its foundational strategies.

Iran has encountered significant challenges over the past year, with the weakening of its allies Hamas and Hezbollah, the unexpected collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, and the return of Donald Trump suggesting a revival of detrimental economic pressure policies. Many U.S. officials perceive Iran as vulnerable, urging that it is experiencing strategic defeat. Richard Haass of Foreign Affairs noted that “Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades, likely since its decadelong war with Iraq or even since the 1979 revolution.” This perception leads to notions of a potential attack on its nuclear facilities or demands for concessions related to a new nuclear agreement.

Contrary to the views of U.S. officials, Iran perceives these setbacks as temporary rather than indicative of defeat. The Islamic Republic believes that despite their losses, groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah have demonstrated resilience in their asymmetric struggles against Israel, thus retaining their guerrilla status. Moreover, groups like the Houthis in Yemen have solidified their commitment to the Palestinian cause, further buttressing Iran’s regional influence.

Recognizing the diminished power of its allies and the fall of Assad, Iran has undertaken limited social reforms to bolster domestic support. These include relaxing the mandatory dress code for women and easing restrictions on social media, aiming to address public discontent with authoritarianism. By aligning its policies more closely with popular sentiment, the Iranian regime hopes to maintain stability and a degree of public trust as it confronts external pressures.

While Iran has made some concessions at home, these should not be interpreted as a pivot towards the West. Instead, the regime’s social reforms aim to fortify internal support against external coercion, particularly from the U.S. With President Trump signaling a readiness for negotiations coupled with military threats, Iran believes that a united domestic front will enable it to withstand any imposed conditions from the U.S.

Iran remains largely unconcerned about the apparent victories of Hamas and Hezbollah, believing they will recuperate through grassroots support. However, the abrupt fall of Assad’s regime has fueled anxiety in Iran, leading its leadership to acknowledge the necessity of fostering social capital and addressing public grievances. Iranian officials, including Cultural Minister Abbas Salehi, have recognized the imperative to restore public trust and internal cohesion.

The Iranian government has also suspended the implementation of a controversial veiling law due to its unpopularity, allowing women to appear unveiled with reduced fear of repercussions. The easing of restrictions reflects an understanding of the need for public favor and the recognition of the failure of prior policies, especially following the backlash against the morality police after Mahsa Amini’s death.

In addition to legal changes, the government has encouraged open dialogue within media channels to allow diverse perspectives, including critical commentary on governmental policies. This strategy aims to channel public frustration away from potential unrest, thereby maintaining stability while soothing public sentiment.

Iran’s leaders anticipate that fostering internal stability through gradual reforms will enable a national dialogue on vital foreign policies, particularly concerning nuclear negotiations. By enhancing internal consensus, they aim to strengthen their bargaining position as they face renewed pressure from the U.S. Although the current administration seeks a more favorable deal, Iran’s leadership is adopting a resolute stance based on perceived internal cohesion in confronting external threats.

As Iran navigates through layered pressures, the lessons learned from Syria serve as a stark reminder. Addressing divisions within the populace is critical to maintaining unity, particularly under potential confrontations with the U.S. The Iranian state aims to manage dissent through limited reforms while ensuring that the regime’s core strategy of defiance remains intact, resisting any urge to compromise its longstanding approaches.

In summary, Iran is contending with significant external challenges while simultaneously attempting to stabilize its domestic situation through cautious reforms. Despite views of its vulnerability, the Islamic Republic perceives setbacks as temporary and remains committed to its regional influence. Limited social concessions and increased media openness reflect a strategy to strengthen internal support and mitigate public unrest, all while maintaining firm resistance against U.S. pressures and aspirations for a favorable nuclear agreement. As Iran grapples with these complex dynamics, its leadership is determined to prevent any internal divisions from jeopardizing the regime’s stability and sovereignty.

Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com